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Flanz don't do that to me man! Okay so last night I was watching local TV and the ads were generally for House and Senate seats. They were probably 4 or 5 to 1 Republican vs Democrat. What the hell are they spending all that ad money here for? The state's going to go red this year (boo) and at the lower levels generally does anyway. I know they budget to help down ticket as well but I've never heard of it working upticket.
BTW - Who thinks that once Christie closes his little voting curtain he votes for Obama?
"So yes, go out and vote. Go vote for Barack Obama, and whatever other Democrats or progressives are running for office where you live. To vote for a Mitt Romney -- to vote for the modern right anywhere in the West today -- is an act of national suicide. The right is hollow to its core; it has no dreams, no vision, no plans to deal with any of the problems that confront us, only infantile fantasies of violence and consumption. But it is, at the moment, well funded, well organized, and feeling especially threatened. It is capable of anything." -- Kevin Baker, "Why Vote?"
Post by Longtime and Frequent Poster on Nov 5, 2012 20:44:14 GMT -5
Just got a pro-Romney robocall from a very young sounding woman. Holy sh*t does that confuse me.
I think my favorite was the voicemail I got today from Mark Ruffalo (He's from Kenosha, WI which is in Paul Ryan's congressional district) asking me to vote for Ryan's opponent. It actually started "You may know me as The Hulk from the Avengers."
Sometimes celebrities need to just not get involved in politics.
Mr. Forward: Whats the word on the ground on Obama in Wisconsin? I know the polls look good but I feel like if there's one state whose results might surprise us it's Wisconsin, given the battle hardened conservative base. I don't see (practically) how Romney wins without Wisconsin.
I'm going to answer this question, but not before a bit of a rant because part of this rubbed me the wrong way.
"Battle hardened conservative base?" I'm sorry, but I believe your perception isn't as one-sided as the reality of things. There have been trials and tribulations testing both sides of all that went on here the past couple years. I take offense to the suggestion that this has only made one side stronger and more cohesive. The opposition here forced fifteen special elections in the past year and a half. Over thirty thousand people collected within spitting distance of one million signatures to force the Walker recall. In the course of doing so, we unwittingly unleashed a loophole which allowed Walker to collect unlimited campaign donations. Outspent 8-to-1 with an abbreviated campaign schedule. In some respects, it's a surprise that wasn't a more spectacular defeat.
I don't think our movement and its accomplishments should be so easily dismissed like a fart in the wind. We're still here.
Had we waited for the Walker recall to coincide with this election - like our state Dems chair tried to tell us - we might have had better fortune. Walker wouldn't be the only election underway nationwide, competing with all the other candidates for attention, fundraising and airtime. Combine that with things like his associates beginning to go on trial and a "250K jobs" promise which has failed so miserably he removed any mention of it from his website... don't get me started.
I think there's a bit of an "apples & oranges" comparison going on between that recall and this presidential race. That disparity of resources doesn't exist in the presidential race in similar fashion. Hell, the recall election exit polls back in June discovered that there's five percent of the electorate who voted Walker then who at the time said they'd vote Obama now. There's a sense there that some people just didn't think the recall was necessary - and as I said shortly after that loss in my Walker thread, I think the Wisconsin Uprising has an "I told you so" moment somewhere down the line.
Consider that the end of the recall rant portion of this post.
Now, Wisconsin has only gone Republican once in my thirty-two years... in 1984, when every state except Minnesota went for Reagan. In 2000, Al Gore won Wisconsin by a mere six thousand votes. In 2004, John Kerry won Wisconsin by twelve thousand votes - the narrowest margin of victory in the country that election. In 2008, Obama won Wisconsin by double digits.
This June, in those same recall exit polls I mentioned above, Obama had 51% of the vote in this state... five percent of the electorate voted for Walker then - but also said they support Obama in tomorrow's election. Between the first and second debate, Obama's lead narrowed to 49-48... but he has rebounded. As of Halloween the final poll from Marquette Law school (which was the most accurate recall poller, conducted by a former faculty adviser of mine from UW-Madison) had Obama leading Romney by a margin of 51-43.
I think we're in store for Obama to win the state again, albeit by a much slimmer margin of victory. We have a native Wisconsinite running for veep. Our U.S. Senate race is a dead heat, which kind of impresses me in and of itself given the fact that the Republican in the race is a fondly-remembered four-term former governor. We're also one of the dwindling number of battleground states, and we're seeing the money pour in accordingly. Baldwin-Thompson (Madison's Congresswoman vs. the former governor seeking to replace a retiring Democrat) is the most expensive Senate race in state history and second only to Massachusetts nationwide.
Now, I'm by no means saying Wisconsin is a lock for Obama - I'd bet a beer on it, though - but if the less-likely happens and Romney somehow does pull out a squeaker here, I would attribute it more to his choice of running mate and Thompson for Senate more than on his own merits.
As I mentioned, Obama was in Madison this morning.
It was his third visit to Wisconsin in five days leading up to the election. Green Bay on Thursday, Milwaukee on Saturday, Madison today. There are battleground states with less than eight-point poll leads out there which could justifiably receive the attention. I do not believe his campaign's renewed interest in the state is entirely on account of presidential politics. (I'm not going to discount it entirely, either.) I think a big part of that is our aforementioned hotly contested Senate race. Democrats have a slimmer lead in the Senate than Obama has in Wisconsin, and the extra attention we're receiving is in no small part because of that. If our Senate race, and the Senate itself, weren't so close... Obama's campaign would likely be directing its focus elsewhere.
To touch on one last point, which I'm going to re-quote since I've gone on at some length:
I don't see (practically) how Romney wins without Wisconsin.
Agreed. It's close enough to the election that I can probably spill the beans on some cards that we convention delegates were told to keep close to our chests. There's strategy/briefing sessions at the convention... the boring (to most) wonky stuff that doesn't make it onto prime time TV. The Obama campaign has identified its twelve most likely Electoral College victory scenarios. Other swing states, they would flip and flop depending on the scenario. Not Wisconsin. Wisconsin was part of Obama's victory equation in all twelve of those scenarios.
His campaign isn't even worrying about a victory scenario in which Romney takes this state.
Even worse it's the one song that always makes me smile and think of being on the farm because of this video. I was sitting under the big tree probably 20 feet from her and missed this, but it was a joy to find this video not long after:
Totally OT but this was the reason I started hooping, this girl right here. I watched her for about 30 minutes in a trance in 2011.
What is this? The 1950's? This friggin' country, I swear.
I know you're talking about women's issues in specific here, but I can agree with you on this in general... to look at collective bargaining rights, to look at matters of meritocracy vs. pay-for-play patronage... I feel the same way on other issues... it's why last February I slapped the state motto "Forward" on my cheesehead and helped storm/occupy my state capitol. I always did think those things were ridiculous, but once told myself I was going to wear one the next time the Packers made it to the Super Bowl.
Voting's a start. Hell, it's the least of our civic duties.
According to Breitbart.com and its commetariat, Obama (OBOZO LOL) is going to lose because Bruce Springsteen played to only 18K at a rally in Madison today, whereas when he played Madison right before the Kerry/Bush election, there were 75K there. Obviously.
I mean that, coupled with the Skins losing at home yesterday (INCUMBENT ALWAYS LUZEZ WHEN SKINS LOSE FINAL HOME GAME BEFORE AN ELECTION LOLZ!), Obama supporters are f*cked.
*Ahem* Packers beat the Redskins on MNF the night before Election 2004. Rule discredited.
This is (hopefully?) going to be my last contribution to this thread before my 8-9 hours of Get Out The Vote tomorrow.
Just a little cheat sheet of which votes around the country this wonk is going to be keeping his eye on tomorrow night:
Top five states I'm watching in the presidential race, in order of poll close times Virginia Florida Ohio Wisconsin (but maybe I'm biased; swap for Iowa or Nevada if you see fit) Colorado
Top five Senate races MA: Scott Brown (R - Inc) / Elizabeth Warren (D) CT: Chris Murphy (D) / Linda McMahon (R) IN: Joe Donnelly (D) / Richard Mourdock (R) MO: Claire McCaskill (D - Inc) / Todd Akin (R) WI: Tammy Baldwin (D) / Tommy Thompson (R)
House races MN: Michelle Bachmann (R - Inc) / Jim Graves (D) (Notable not only because it's Bachmann, but also because she has always won with a third party in the race - but there isn't one this year for a change.) VA: Eric Cantor & his bitch face (R - Inc) / Wayne Powell (D) (Cantor's leadership position, swing state, stronger challenger than usual. Also, biased - met Powell in Charlotte, had a nice chat, turns out he's a fellow Badger alum so we're cool.) CA: Districts 15, 30, 31, 35, 44 (These districts feature two candidates in the same party on account of a recent change in elections law.) WI: Paul Ryan (R - Inc) / Rob Zerban (D) (Basically same reasoning as Cantor/VA above, plus some bias because I did some drinking with Zerban in Charlotte. I got drunk and told him "Nice guys finish last" applies to politics, too.)
Referenda Michigan: Whether to repeal Act 4, which allowed for Emergency Financial Managers. Gay marriage bans on the ballot in: Maine, Maryland, Minnesota, Washington Washington: Whether to allow for legalization/regulation/sale of corn. California propositions: Prop 30 on tax increases; Prop 32 on collective bargaining/union dues for political activities (I find parts of it similar to what Walker tried to do here;) Prop 37 on mandatory labeling of genetically engineered food. Los Angeles: Measure B would require use of condoms during porno shoots if passed.
Hope that's worth something to someone out there. Happy voting to all you slackers who haven't yet.
Post by BelgianCumCrabs on Nov 6, 2012 7:26:20 GMT -5
When will we see the first results? Is this going to be as close as George Bush vs Al Gore? Obama or Romney? Will Romney be a candidate again in 4 years if he doesn't win?
When will we see the first results? Is this going to be as close as George Bush vs Al Gore? Obama or Romney? Will Romney be a candidate again in 4 years if he doesn't win?
- We won't know until really late tonight, so you'll probably wake up to the news of who won.
- Possibly, but unlikely.
- Depends who you ask. Anyone on Rupurt Murdoch's payroll is saying Romney, most everyone else is saying Obama.
- Romney wins or he goes away forever. The GOP will bury him in a mansion somewhere to bounce grandkids on his knee.
Just waited in line to vote for 30 minutes, which is the longest I've ever had to wait in this little town of about 3000. I got there 5 minutes before polls opened. I'm sure I was surrounded by Romney voters, but it felt good to make my selections.
Last Edit: Nov 6, 2012 8:19:03 GMT -5 by Deleted - Back to Top
My Dad voted Democrat for the first time since Slick Willie's second term. He never told me who he's voted for, and he basically went through 30 years of voting history with me this morning. Said as much as he knows Romney would get him a better bonus/pay (finance industry loves the GOP and the $ would start flowing again if he's elected), he can't in good conscience put him in charge of cleaning up the mess his party created. Was kind of surprised by this since he's fought with me for a year about who the better candidate was.
I asked him why he's argued with me over policies, economics, healthcare, etc. for the past year. His response was "I wanted you to know your sh*t, and the only way I know how to do that is tell you that you don't know what the hell you're talking about." I guess it worked, I was more motivated by his arguments than anyone else's.
To expand, with the way voting for President is set up, it is hard to motivate certain parts of the country to get out to vote. An overwhelming majority of campaigning happens in a small amount of states since so many states were decided months ago for all intents and purposes. I was reading an article the other day were it said that there were 3-5 states (can't remember the exact number) that none of the four candidates touched in the general election. It mentioned that Romney only went to California, for instance, in order to do fundraising since he has basically zero chance of winning that state. I can relate to an earlier post from flanzo in that my individual vote in the Presidential election doesn't really matter for much in that Romney will carry Tennessee easily. I voted because I think it's important to exercise the right and one of my local races (shout out to iamthehorn is tightly contested, and I hate the Republican candidate.
To expand, with the way voting for President is set up, it is hard to motivate certain parts of the country to get out to vote. An overwhelming majority of campaigning happens in a small amount of states since so many states were decided months ago for all intents and purposes. I was reading an article the other day were it said that there were 3-5 states (can't remember the exact number) that none of the four candidates touched in the general election. It mentioned that Romney only went to California, for instance, in order to do fundraising since he has basically zero chance of winning that state. I can relate to an earlier post from flanzo in that my individual vote in the Presidential election doesn't really matter for much in that Romney will carry Tennessee easily. I voted because I think it's important to exercise the right and one of my local races (shout out to iamthehorn is tightly contested, and I hate the Republican candidate.
I was basically going to come and say the same thing, Manders.
Since the popular vote isn't what decides the election (and the electoral college does), millions of people in certain states are unmotivated to vote. Many southern states vote Republican every election, most of New England goes for the Democrats, California goes Democrat, Texas goes GOP. There are a handful of states where a person's vote truly matters, and most of the country doesn't live in those states.
I just want it over early tonight. I tend to stay up way too long telling myself I need to go to bed but waiting, waiting, waiting. This can't be a Bush v Gore issue or I'll lose my mind!
And I went out to vote suffering from a stomach bug. Not going to lie, I hope the germs spread to some of the people I was surrounded by. Ugh, I know I say this often, but living in the South will be the death of me.
I did see a case of voter steering I think. Not sure what to call it. There was an Hispanic voter several people in front of me. I do not believe he knew much English. It was his first time voting. He needed help several times, & the time I was close enough to hear he was questioning the straight party selection. The nice little old lady was like "You want to vote straight Republican?" He seemed confused but said yes. Not sure if that he was what he wanted but I believe that is what he did.
Last Edit: Nov 6, 2012 9:12:47 GMT -5 by Deleted - Back to Top
Post by wannaberoo'ing on Nov 6, 2012 8:53:28 GMT -5
Custeph, I don't think it is just the South. We live up here in the 'burgh now. I have traveled and lived all over this country. We have family in the South still (thank God, so we have somewhere warm to vacation). This is totally just my opinion, but backwards, hate-filled, "God and guns" folks live everywhere. I experienced strange things in the deep South though...but it exists up here too.
Minnesota changed alot over the years as well. It used to be pretty darn liberal. Not so much anymore. Alot of my MN friends loved George W. and developed some pretty hateful ideologies over the years, against blacks, against gays, against the whole world it seems. Needless to say, it has been hard for me to maintain my friendships with some old friends.
Anywhoo, sorry for all that! I'm just meandering through my personal political timeline of these United States.
Custeph, I don't think it is just the South. We live up here in the 'burgh now. I have traveled and lived all over this country. We have family in the South still (thank God, so we have somewhere warm to vacation). This is totally just my opinion, but backwards, hate-filled, "God and guns" folks live everywhere. I experienced strange things in the deep South though...but it exists up here too.
Minnesota changed alot over the years as well. It used to be pretty darn liberal. Not so much anymore. Alot of my MN friends loved George W. and developed some pretty hateful ideologies over the years, against blacks, against gays, against the whole world it seems. Needless to say, it has been hard for me to maintain my friendships with some old friends.
Anywhoo, sorry for all that! I'm just meandering through my personal political timeline of these United States.
Drive 90 minutes NW from NYC and you would think you're on the set of Deliverance.