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Post by Don Flamenco on Oct 11, 2012 16:13:31 GMT -5
Nolan Ryan is ALWAYS right. Didn't ya know? Hamilton quitting dip midseason was the stupidest thing he could have done for himself. It not only hurt us as a team but also his own worth. Dude couldn't see the ball the same as a result. I just wish our lame, quacking fans would have treated him better this year. He's my favorite hitter we've ever had. I don't like how this ended for him if this is indeed the end.
The only answer he'll give the media regarding his future is basically "God will tell him who to sign with." He can't play for Heaven unless he dies (which I would assume be his first choice). Basically Texas gets first dibs but he'll likely sign with the highest bidder. He also guaranteed the Rangers the opportunity to counteroffer if it comes to that.
The only answer he'll give the media regarding his future is basically "God will tell him who to sign with." He can't play for Heaven unless he dies (which I would assume be his first choice).
"You would've liked to have thought that if he was going to do that, that he would've done it in the offseason or waited until this offseason to do it," Ryan said during an appearance on ESPN Dallas 103.3 FM's Galloway and Company this week. "So the drastic effect that it had on him and the year that he was having up to that point in time when he did quit, you'd have liked that he would've taken a different approach to that."
Nolan Ryan must just wake up every day and think to himself, "How could I be more of an assh*le?"
And this is coming from someone who strongly dislikes Hamilton and thinks his whole born-again excuse is a massive joke.
hahaha i like this person's comment at the bottom:
Hamilton didn't pick the middle of the season to quit tobacco because his doctor said it was urgent. He quit then because Jebus spoke to him (possibly through the hair dryer). Hamilton has adult "minders" who watch the baby and make sure he doesn't mess up, so clearly it's too much to ask him to take care of business while he's getting paid millions to produce, and take care of personal health concerns on his own time (the offseason).
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Post by LoveLuckLaughter on Oct 11, 2012 23:28:32 GMT -5
Nick Swisher was in the outfield eating a hot dog, Granderson has surpassed my record of 9 strikeouts in a row. Ichiro looks like he is trying to hit the ball with chopsticks and Jeter seems to have hit more balls than the entire team combined. Get it together boys!
Let's go through the arguments that people are making for Cabrera to be the MVP. And I'll do it on hard-mode by not even mentioning WAR one time.
"He won the Triple Crown! That hasn't happened in so long! He must be better than Trout!"
Well, that's nice. I understand it's rarity and difficulty, but the Triple Crown is just an arbitrary, seemingly random, collection of 3 stats. One of which tells you nothing about individual effectiveness and is completely opportunity-based (RBI) and one of which is very misleading and again tells you very little about individual effectiveness (.AVG). If you want to pull the Triple Crown card, though, Trout had a collection of 3 random stats that were even rarer than Cabrera's (30 HR, 45 SB, 125 R, which has never been done in the history of the MLB). Winning the Triple Crown does not automatically equate someone to be being the best offensive player that year.
"Well he leads the league in OPS! That includes all the aspects of hitting. His OPS is over 1!"
While an OPS of 1+ is very impressive, OPS is kind of a flawed stat in the sense that it treats OBP and SLG as the same importance, when in reality each point of OBP is worth more in terms of creating runs than each point of SLG.
A better stat to look at is wOBA (weighted on-base average), which is similar to OPS but weighs every individual offensive outcome (1B, 2B, 3B, HR, SB, CS, BB, HBP) based on their true run value. SLG assumes that a double is worth twice as much as a single, which is actually false as a single is worth about .44 runs to a double's .77. 2 singles are better than 1 double. This year Trout posted a league-high .421 wOBA to Cabrera's .417.
"But he had so many RBI! He had 50 more than Trout! He's such a better run producer!"
While the RBI totals would tell you Cabrera is better at driving in runners, it's a lot closer than the numbers suggest. See, RBI is the most flawed and useless stat that constantly gets thrown around when comparing player performance. What resulted in his misleading RBI total was a league-high 444 runners on-base during his plate appearances. In terms of actual effectiveness of knocking runners in, they were close to equal. Cabrera this year drove in 31% of his runners on base to Trout's 28%, a lot closer than the 50 RBI margin would have you think. In addition, Miguel batting 3rd meant most of the time his baserunners were Austin Jackson and Quintin Berry, the two fastest players in Detroit's lineup, making them easier to drive in. Since Trout hits leadoff, his baserunners were slower bottom of the order hitters like Chris Ianetta and Vernon Wells.
But if you want to play the RBI (opportunity) game, you must also consider the other side to having the most opportunities with men on base, with the fact that Cabrera grounded into more double plays (28) than any other player in baseball this year.
So you can either ignore the gross difference in opportunities and give Cabrera credit for driving in many more runs while also penalizing him for creating many more outs, or adjust for opportunity and realize that Cabrera hasn’t actually been that much better than Trout at bringing his teammates home once they get on base.
"OK, well maybe his offensive numbers aren't any better, but Miggy is so clutch! He gets the big hits when it really matters and carried his team down the stretch!"
Although "clutchness" is hard to quantify, WPA (win-probability added) does a pretty good job of it. It uses win probability, which takes into account baserunners, outs, and what inning it is -- all the things people used to describe "clutch" -- and measures the win probability before and after each player's at-bat, crediting them with the difference in win probability that resulted from their at-bat. It essentially measure's how much each individual player contributed to their team's win (or loss). For example, the highest single-game postseason WPA of all-time was David Freese in Game 6 of last year's World Series. I don't think anyone would deny that he was as clutch as they came in that game.
So let's look at Trout and Cabrera's season WPA this year:
Trout - 5.67 (1st in AL) Cabrera - 4.55 (4th in AL, behind teammate Prince Fielder and Edwin Encarnacion)
So Trout actually contributed (offensively) to more wins, even taking into account context-based (clutch) situations for his team than Miggy this year.
WPA by month Trout -0.08 - April 0.89 - May 1.63 - June 1.42 - July 1.45 - August 0.36 - Sept/Oct
Cabrera 0.86 - April 0.83 - May -0.28 - June 0.99 - July 1.05 - August 1.11 - Sept/Oct
So yes, while Cabrera was more clutch and effective over the last month, does it really make up for the previous 4 months
[/u] that Trout consistently beat Cabrera? After all, a win in June is worth just as much as a win in September at the end of the year.
So now we've come to the conclusion that they were virtually equal in runs created for their team, with the slight edge to Trout, they were virtually equal in driving in baserunners, with the slight edge to Cabrera, and Trout was consistently more clutch throughout the course of the season, with the edge going to Cabrera in the final month. I think it's safe to say they were virtually equal offensive contributors for their teams, you really can't give an edge to either one.
But wait, there's more! (to the game of baseball than just offense). You have to play defense too. And while we couldn't really decide upon who has the advantage offensively, I don't think anyone would really debate that Trout has a MASSIVE advantage over Cabrera defensively, while playing the hardest position in the game. (Although I'm not a huge fan of defensive stats in baseball - and you don't really need them in this situation for it to be clear who the advantage goes to - the defensive numbers are there to support Trout pretty soundly as well).
One more thing to consider is Trout's obvious, and again MASSIVE, speed advantage over Cabrera. Yes, we already included this earlier as SB and CS are included in wOBA, but let's even take steals out of the picture. Trout added so much more value to his team by all the times he used his speed to go from 1st to 3rd, scoring from 2nd on singles and taking extra bases by just being faster and better base runner. This is something that Cabrera simply cannot offer to his team, and frankly, he hurts his team (takes away value) by his deficiency in this facet of the game.
So how can Trout not be the Most Valuable Player this season?
"Well Cabrera's team is in the playoffs! And Trout's isn't! Ha! See? Cabrera is MVP!"
Well, the Angels winning percentage when Trout was in the lineup (.582) was the better than the Tigers with Miggy in the lineup (.543), plus they had a better record overall than the Tigers. So Cabrera should win the MVP because he plays in a weaker division than Trout and his teammates are better? What else did Trout have to do to make up for his team's shortcomings and his stronger division? Should he have played the other 7 positions and pitched like Justin Verlander?
He added more value to his team than Cabrera, plain and simple. Player value to me does not change based on what team you are on. That implies that your team has something to do with an individual award, and that's not the case. It's not the "Most Valuable Player plus other valuable players around you" award, it's just "Most Valuable Player". And Trout was the Most Valuable Player to his team in the entire MLB this year
Cabrera had an incredible season, no doubt, and I'm glad he won the Triple Crown (for both my fantasy team and my wallet, not to mention the sport of baseball), but he was not the Most Valuable Player to his team this year.[/quote]
I stay out of this thread for the most part, due to my lack of the appropriate appendages. Therefore I am late to the game here. But what a bunch of Moneyball, Billy Bean, New Age malarky. Not that anything I'll say can convince you that the the way that baseball has been measured for the last 100 years has validity...Yet Cabrera is in the ALCS and Mike Trout is sitting at home on his mom's couch crying and watching Moneyball. September does matter more, Cabrera led his team to the playoffs and Trout led his home.
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Post by Homer J. Fong on Oct 12, 2012 15:31:06 GMT -5
Alberto's post on Trout encapsulates perfectly both why I love and hate baseball. I love it because there are myriad ways to break down a player's effectiveness and demonstrate their true value to the game. It's really a cerebral exercise in a lot of ways.
I hate baseball because we are not a cerebral country, or society. We value foolishness and idiocy and simplicity. Complex, complicated things are too frightening or different for us to embrace. Hence, why Cy Young voters still think that wins matter, or why people think that RBI and batting average are good measures of a player's worth as a baseball player. This doesn't extend only to baseball, but its most prevalent here.
Trout should be the MVP. Anything less is flat out crazy.
Mar 14 Sheepdogs/Fitz & The Tantrums/City & Colour (Austin)
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I stay out of this thread for the most part, due to my lack of the appropriate appendages. Therefore I am late to the game here. But what a bunch of Moneyball, Billy Bean, New Age malarky. Not that anything I'll say can convince you that the the way that baseball has been measured for the last 100 years has validity...Yet Cabrera is in the ALCS and Mike Trout is sitting at home on his mom's couch crying and watching Moneyball. September does matter more, Cabrera led his team to the playoffs and Trout led his home.
People used to think the Earth was flat a long time ago, too. I guess if you would have lived in those times you would have lauded the validity of out-dated theories in opposition to the idea of a round Earth as well. We know a lot more about the game now than we did 100 years ago, and therefore have developed methods to better analyze players. You can keep living and thinking in 1912 times if you'd like, but I'll go with the Billy Beane "malarky" - as I believe you put it. The guy whose team just won the toughest division in baseball with the 2nd lowest payroll, who had a book and a film made about his innovative thinking, and who made every franchise in the MLB spend millions of dollars in research staffs to change the way they analyze and recruit players in order to keep up with him. Have fun counting RBI on your abacus, though.
As for the very tired "playoffs" argument, I just really don't see how one can clearly see that:
Player A has a massive advantage over Player B in 1/3 of the game, a massive advantage in the second of the three aspects of the game, and they are neutral in the third
yet somehow conclude Player B is more valuable to his team as a byproduct of factors out of his control that surround him. Clearly Player A added more to his team, yet you fault him for the shortcomings of his peers? How is that fair? Trout helped the Angels win more games than Cabrera did for the Tigers, but missed out on the playoffs by technicality. You're diminishing Trout's achievements because his teammates weren't good enough to help the Angels make the playoffs. Is having better teammates a skill? Is playing in a weaker division a skill? Why is Cabrera being rewarded for playing on a better team? Switch Miggy and Trout and the Tigers would have won more games and the Angels less than they did...how exactly is Cabrera more valuable? "Because he helped his team win games when it mattered", right? Does a win in September count more towards the standings than wins in May, June, July and August? (the 4 consecutive months that Trout helped his team win games - which still "counted" just as much as the September games - more than Cabrera)
1. Ichiro Suzuki - RF 2. Alex Rodriguez - SS 3. Barry Bonds - LF 4. Albert Pujols - 1B 5. Manny Ramirez - DH 6. Miguel Cabrera - 3B 7. Joe Mauer - C 8. Jim Edmonds - CF 9. Chase Utley - 2B
SP1- Pedro Martinez SP2- Randy Johnson SP3- Roy Halladay SP4- Justin Verlander SP5- Curt Schilling Closer - Mariano Rivera
So we're using a DH? And I'm assuming this is taking place in an alternate universe where our teams would play each other and therefore fielding matters.
1. Ichiro Suzuki - RF 2. Derek Jeter - SS 3. Carlos Beltran - CF 4. Albert Puhols - 1B 5. Barry Bonds - DH 6. Miguel Cabrera - 3B 7. Manny Ramirez - LF 8. Mike Piazza - C 9. Jeff Kent - 2B
Sp - Randy Johnson Sp - Roy Halladay Sp - Johan Santana Sp - Pedro Martinez Sp - CC Sabathia Closer* - Billy Wagner
*Look, I think everyone picks Mariano for closer, so I'm not picking him for this just to get some different names out there, but he's really my pick also.
Post by Alberto Balsalm on Oct 13, 2012 11:12:06 GMT -5
How can you possibly leave Alex Rodriguez off the all 2000's roster? (Especially when you can put him at 2 different positions)
499 HRs since 2000 (most of anyone in that timespan over Pujols by 25) and 200 steals while batting .298/.392/.564
I was strongly considering Beltran in CF bt Edmonds just outhit him by way too high of a margin to make up for Beltran's advantage in speed. Beltran statistically is the better defender too but I don't really trust defensive sabermetrics that strongly. I'd still take Edmonds in the field with how much range he covered and all the spectacular plays he made. There is also a case to be made for Beltran's clutchness as well, I believe he has something like a career 1.30 OPS in the postseason. Definitely a close one.
I considered Jeff Kent at 2B as well as he was definitely better offensively than Chase but I think Utley's defense and baserunning make up for it. Kent definitely has durability on Utley too, this one could certainly go either way. Also this might be going too in-depth but Jeff Kent was a huge weeniehead and was a close to a T.O.-like locker room cancer as you can get in baseball.
Piazza is an interesting pick though, didn't really consider him (my next pick was Pudge). Although he was one of the best slugging catchers of all-time, he had no arm and actually Mauer is arguably the more productive offensive catcher, despite not having as much power. Plus Mauer has been elite defensively.
Are you a Mets fan Flanzo? I forgot. (Not trying to be an ass, Piazza is a decent pick I just forgot who you root for. Would help explain the Johan and Wagner picks too)
All around nice picks though. After Pedro, Randy and Halladay I had a hard time with the last 2 SP slots. You can make a case for a TON of guys. CC was the next one on my list and Johan was right behind him with a handful of other guys in consideration after them. Schilling had the best xFIP (3.18) and by far the best K:BB ratio (an insanely impressive 6.04, the next highest was Pedro with 4.63) so I couldn't leave him off. You could argue that Verlander hasn't proven it enough but I don't think anyone questions that he's the real deal and that when it's all said and done his career numbers will be pretty comparable with the rest of these guys in the discussion.
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If you take Allen Craig off the Cardinals, they don't make the playoffs.
I don't know why I forgot to post it here, but my bold prediction that I made on both Facebook and Twitter as well as another forum that I post on before the postseason started was:
"My bold playoff prediction: If the Cardinals win the World Series again, Allen Craig will be the MVP. You heard it here first"
He was a three time all star, caught four no hitters, good defensive catcher (though he didn't throw that many basestealers out), captain of the team which won two World Series. Hit almost 200 homers in his career.
Yeah Pudge and Piazza are good too. I would pick Varitek though.
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If you take Allen Craig off the Cardinals, they don't make the playoffs.
I don't know why I forgot to post it here, but my bold prediction that I made on both Facebook and Twitter as well as another forum that I post on before the postseason started was:
"My bold playoff prediction: If the Cardinals win the World Series again, Allen Craig will be the MVP. You heard it here first"
Come on Allen. Make me look smart.
I just don't see how the Cards don't win it again with their ridiculous postseason comebacks continuing. I'd say TLR sold his soul to the devil last year, but I don't know how you sell something to yourself.
At the beginning of the playoffs there were four teams where I felt it would've been cool to see win the World Series. It's already down to zero now. The Tigers and Giants are fine but they probably have like 5 Championship Series appearances between them the last few years. Boring boring boring.
He was a three time all star, caught four no hitters, good defensive catcher (though he didn't throw that many basestealers out), captain of the team which won two World Series. Hit almost 200 homers in his career.
Yeah Pudge and Piazza are good too. I would pick Varitek though.
I don't think most people realize how good Mauer has been in his career.
Mauer is better across the board offensively by a pretty wide margin and was a slightly better defensive catcher than Varitek because of his arm. Varitek had some clutch moments, but Mauer is nearly twice as productive.
And we all know All-Star selections are just popularity contests (Though Mauer already has 5 of these to Varitek's 3 as well)
