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The track keeps shifting westward, which might be better for me. Worse for ITM and Bonz though.
2-3 days ago, it was missing offshore. Then it was looking like the Cape and South Coast. Then late last night and early this morning it was RI. Now it's Long Island and Connecticut. The way its going, NYC might be a possibility.
Hopefully it’s just some excitement up there and turns into a party storm that far inland. Be sure to throw out some updates if you see anything crazy. Bonzi and even Jorge (if you read this thread).
The track keeps shifting westward, which might be better for me. Worse for ITM and Bonz though.
2-3 days ago, it was missing offshore. Then it was looking like the Cape and South Coast. Then late last night and early this morning it was RI. Now it's Long Island and Connecticut. The way its going, NYC might be a possibility.
Hopefully it’s just some excitement up there and turns into a party storm that far inland. Be sure to throw out some updates if you see anything crazy. Bonzi and even Jorge (if you read this thread).
I’m flying out tomorrow well before it all goes down, but I’ll be in touch with my wife and get the full scoop from her.
Do you want to dance while also thinking about all the ways you've failed as a human?
UPCOMING SHOWS 5/14 - Neil Young & Crazy Horse @ Forest Hills 6/8 and maybe 6/9 - Governors Ball 8/17 - King Gizzard & the Lizard Wizard @ Forest Hills 9/4 - Pearl Jam @ MSG 9/7 - Pearl Jam @ Wells Fargo Center 9/11 - St. Vincent @ Brooklyn Paramount
Yeah, I forgot you said you were going to Los Angeles, but hopefully it's nothing too crazy besides rain and wind. Looks like Hydrological Meteorological Center (unless it's the CPC who puts it out), has the QPF at 2-7" with the heaviest across Connecticut, western MA and southern VT. ---------------- Pablo, FYI that's usually right for those of us more along the north side of the Gulf. But sometimes it's the right front quadrant. The best way to visualize it is for storms hitting from +/- due west or due east rather than coming up.
There's one page I'm reading on FB which seems convinced the west turn which NHC keeps talking about the last 18-24 hours isn't real and Henri is still going for eastern LI or RI. Cites GFS pretty heavily.
What ensemble members keep pulling the forecast west then?
There's one page I'm reading on FB which seems convinced the west turn which NHC keeps talking about the last 18-24 hours isn't real and Henri is still going for eastern LI or RI. Cites GFS pretty heavily.
What ensemble members keep pulling the forecast west then?
I've lived on the coast in SC for for 20 years, 1 week out all the way to 12 hours before land fall lots of change will happen. My advice is be ready if you are in the general path but don't freak out.
There's one page I'm reading on FB which seems convinced the west turn which NHC keeps talking about the last 18-24 hours isn't real and Henri is still going for eastern LI or RI. Cites GFS pretty heavily.
What ensemble members keep pulling the forecast west then?
There's one page I'm reading on FB which seems convinced the west turn which NHC keeps talking about the last 18-24 hours isn't real and Henri is still going for eastern LI or RI. Cites GFS pretty heavily.
What ensemble members keep pulling the forecast west then?
I've lived on the coast in SC for for 20 years, 1 week out all the way to 12 hours before land fall lots of change will happen. My advice is be ready if you are in the general path but don't freak out.
As long as we don't lose power, I'm not too worried. We don't get that many storms up here, so it's kind of exciting to follow this one. Bob in 1991 was the last landfalling hurricane in New England, I was 6 when that happened.
Meanwhile memorable ones like Irene and Isaias were downgraded to TS when they got this far north. Sandy left turned into NJ. Usually they all do something worse somewhere else first, then go here on the way out. (Fred on Thursday for example.) Or just stay off the coast entirely.
Last night I posted that tweet of a GFS run showing 975 mb at the Hamptons. I highly doubt that'll happen. But that's basically the worst case scenario for RI there. Landfall around New London or Groton, probably a Cat 2. Center parallels 395 in CT.
Western half of RI being rural and woods loses power for a week minimum. A number of roads are impassable for days. Wind damage most common issue here.
Huge storm surge pushes up Narragansett Bay and floods anything nearby. Including parts of Newport, Bristol, and Warwick. There's a hurricane barrier protecting downtown Providence, but just south of that goes under water. Like the port, and the spot in East Prov where they have concerts.
Too far out still to drop this in the Roo thread, but odds are increasing for a Gulf hurricane hit next weekend. Looks like Texas possibly Cat 2, but it could range from nothing to cat 3 and from Mexico to LA. Inland trajectory will depend on what happens in middle Tennessee. Far enough west, there will be a couple rain bands. Closer, and some campsites could get wrecked Wednesday. We will know way more by Saturday.
Windy is pretty cool for depictions. I'm usually following on Storm2k.org because I've been on that site for 20 years and know some of the professional mets that post there. Looking a bit sketchy for 99L at the moment. South Florida Water Management District usually updates pretty quick on the spaghetti plots. I thought south Texas/Mexico border yesterday, but it's increasingly clear that 99L will come farther north than that. The good thing is that the farther east it hits, the less intense it's likely to be. The NW Gulf can breed extremely strong hurricanes compared to the rest of the Gulf. Our plan was to leave Wednesday morning from Florida to drive to Tennessee. That's obviously pending now as we could go as early as Saturday or Sunday if need be. We don't usually evacuate but since K is still recovering from surgery, loss of power could be extremely uncomfortable. So limbo it is for a few more days. I'll probably gas up the car tomorrow and grab a few cases of water just to have them before the rush (in case there is one).
It's not looking too good for down here in 4 days at least for now. We'll see how things evolve tomorrow and Friday and make a decision on whether to leave for Florida before earlier than expected. But with the main global models pulling east for the 18z runs (1pm local), and at least the German model so far (ICON) at 00z (7pm here), there's a greater chance that Tennessee could see some effects. Here's the ICON valid at 144 hours or 7pm Tuesday night. You can see what's still a tropical storm in North Missisippi heading toward Tennessee.
Run stopped there for some reason, and the rainfall estimates haven't caught up even to that point, so we don't really know how bad ICON thinks it will be on Wednesday/Thursday up in Tennessee.
Edit - it puts a couple inches down which isn't terrible. But that seems low considering.
Tell me about it. Got an old lady with stitches all down her side who can’t lift any more than a pound for the next couple weeks. She owns the house but can’t currently drive. So we need to deal with her and potential shit before even thinking about Bonnaroo. I think we will bail for Pensacola tomorrow night and play shit by ear. That’s fuck, fuck and fuck again. I’ll try to update estimated rainfall after the 12z models run. As of now, the spread is some sprinkles up to 5 or more inches for Manchester middle of the week.
Post by hygienequeen on Aug 26, 2021 8:21:20 GMT -5
Blame me for the weather...I said about two weeks ago "I hope a hurricane doesn't come a few days before Roo and we have to evacuate" (Had to do this LL18) Obviously the universe has a sense of humor and said "I grant your wish but I'll make it come to Roo instead of home"
Blame me for the weather...I said about two weeks ago "I hope a hurricane doesn't come a few days before Roo and we have to evacuate" (Had to do this LL18) Obviously the universe has a sense of humor and said "I grant your wish but I'll make it come to Roo instead of home"
Last two Voodoos we had random late October tropical storms. Then we got blasted by like 5” of rain in 2015 for Clutch > Janes Addiction > Ozzy. They had hay and straw and were prepared except for 2015. I don’t know how you replicate that on the farm.
Tell me about it. Got an old lady with stitches all down her side who can’t lift any more than a pound for the next couple weeks. She owns the house but can’t currently drive. So we need to deal with her and potential shit before even thinking about Bonnaroo. I think we will bail for Pensacola tomorrow night and play shit by ear. That’s fuck, fuck and fuck again. I’ll try to update estimated rainfall after the 12z models run. As of now, the spread is some sprinkles up to 5 or more inches for Manchester middle of the week.
sorry to hear it. Hang in there. Looks like it may be tracking easterly. There is still a lot up in the air right now. Trying to stay optimistic, but am a pessimist by nature.
GFS says Bonnaroo has a delayed opening on Tuesday. There's no way around it. That's 114 hours (valid for 1pm next Tuesday). That will take a few hours to clear, and then they may have to lay straw/hay or whatever in the areas that will be trafficed earlier in the week. Which and What don't open until later, so they'll have time to dry out. Tuesday is still 5 days away, so shit can still change. But... www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs®ion=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2021082700&fh=114