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If everyone on here spent their energy trying to convince the good team to stop arming a genocide instead of scolding a dumbass RFK voter in louisiana of all places, that would probably have a lot more theoretical impact on the upcoming election
are you saying this out of fear it will happen or out of actual data? Cause most polling is pretty clear that whatever percentage RFK JR polls the losses are pretty even split and when one side is behind it’s well within the margin of error. To add to that Independent voters are naturally harder to read and it’s rarely correct to say a 3rd party person cost a candidate the election. As a lot of the folks have no loyalty to either side and don’t owe the parties anything.
In other words, you don’t actually know that an RFK voter would show up for Biden if RFK wasn’t running. You might dislike the idea that they won’t vote the lesser of two evils but that in no way makes them obligated to do it. So calling people dumb and blaming them for a Biden loss is a poor analysis of why Biden might actually lose.
For what it’s worth, looking at RFK JR funding numbers points towards more right wing types. Besides some obvious funny business with the big donors there are a lot of folks who didn’t contribute to either party in the last couple elections. And again, that’s the problem with figuring out who these folks are. They often have contradictory politics and don’t really show up election after election for anyone outside of some kook.
It's based on actual data - nearly every poll that includes RFK shows Trump with a bigger lead over Biden than he has in the same poll without RFK. That happens both in national polls (usually a 2-3 point difference) and in state-level polls (generally the same but I've seen as high as a 7 point difference in Pennsylvania). It's often technically within the margin of error, but it's so consistent that it's hard to dismiss.
I agree with others that RFK's polling will drop as we approach the election, but considering how thin the margins were in many states in 2020, yes - I'm legitimately concerned about the impact he'll have on the race, as I think everyone should be.
Real question, not a "gotcha" question: Are y'all factoring in Jill Stein and Cornel West when y'all say RFK is taking votes away from Biden vs Trump?
I'm asking because every poll I've seen that includes RFK is also including Jill Stein and Cornel West. And I don't think Stein or West are stealing Trump votes.
So when I see a poll such as the Quinnipiac poll of Michigan voters from 3/14, for example, it shows Trump leading Biden 48-45 in a head-to-head. But when you add in Kennedy, Stein, and West, it goes to Trump 41, Biden 36, Kennedy 10, Stein 4, West 3. So when you add in the third party candidates, Trump's lead goes from 3 to 5 points, as well as Trump only dropping 7 points while Biden drops 9. But how much of that is Stein and West? Trump's 7 lost points has to go somewhere, and it sure as hell isn't all going to Stein.
Another example is a Fox News poll of Pennsylvania from 3/14. It has Trump up 49 to 47 over Biden in a head-to-head. But when you add third parties, it's Trump and Biden tied at 42, Kennedy at 9, and Stein and West both at 2. Again, nothing about that points towards it being majority Biden voters going for RFK.
At best, RFK appears to be syphoning more Trump votes. At worst, it might be a wash.
If everyone on here spent their energy trying to convince the good team to stop arming a genocide instead of scolding a dumbass RFK voter in louisiana of all places, that would probably have a lot more theoretical impact on the upcoming election
This guy gets it
Getting called a “dumbass RFK voter” and agreeing and liking it…
Getting called a “dumbass RFK voter” and agreeing and liking it…
Yeah, because idgaf if some of y'all think I'm a dumbass because we have a disagreement about an election. His sentiment, that focusing on one voter in a super Red state instead of the flaws of your own candidate is a waste of fucking time, is something I agree with.
It's based on actual data - nearly every poll that includes RFK shows Trump with a bigger lead over Biden than he has in the same poll without RFK. That happens both in national polls (usually a 2-3 point difference) and in state-level polls (generally the same but I've seen as high as a 7 point difference in Pennsylvania). It's often technically within the margin of error, but it's so consistent that it's hard to dismiss.
I agree with others that RFK's polling will drop as we approach the election, but considering how thin the margins were in many states in 2020, yes - I'm legitimately concerned about the impact he'll have on the race, as I think everyone should be.
Real question, not a "gotcha" question: Are y'all factoring in Jill Stein and Cornel West when y'all say RFK is taking votes away from Biden vs Trump?
I'm asking because every poll I've seen that includes RFK is also including Jill Stein and Cornel West. And I don't think Stein or West are stealing Trump votes.
So when I see a poll such as the Quinnipiac poll of Michigan voters from 3/14, for example, it shows Trump leading Biden 48-45 in a head-to-head. But when you add in Kennedy, Stein, and West, it goes to Trump 41, Biden 36, Kennedy 10, Stein 4, West 3. So when you add in the third party candidates, Trump's lead goes from 3 to 5 points, as well as Trump only dropping 7 points while Biden drops 9. But how much of that is Stein and West? Trump's 7 lost points has to go somewhere, and it sure as hell isn't all going to Stein.
Another example is a Fox News poll of Pennsylvania from 3/14. It has Trump up 49 to 47 over Biden in a head-to-head. But when you add third parties, it's Trump and Biden tied at 42, Kennedy at 9, and Stein and West both at 2. Again, nothing about that points towards it being majority Biden voters going for RFK.
At best, RFK appears to be syphoning more Trump votes. At worst, it might be a wash.
It’s the same both ways. Here’s The Hill’s breakdown of Trump-Biden vs Trump-Biden-RFK with none of the others. Trump’s lead goes from 0.8% to 2.7% just by adding RFK to the mix. elections2024.thehill.com/national/biden-trump-rfk-general/
If everyone on here spent their energy trying to convince the good team to stop arming a genocide instead of scolding a dumbass RFK voter in louisiana of all places, that would probably have a lot more theoretical impact on the upcoming election
Israel gonna Israel.
How do any of us convince some genocidal maniacs 6000 miles away to have a freaking conscience.
If everyone on here spent their energy trying to convince the good team to stop arming a genocide instead of scolding a dumbass RFK voter in louisiana of all places, that would probably have a lot more theoretical impact on the upcoming election
Israel gonna Israel.
How do any of us convince some genocidal maniacs 6000 miles away to have a freaking conscience.
OK, good effort, now try actually reading my post before responding
If everyone on here spent their energy trying to convince the good team to stop arming a genocide instead of scolding a dumbass RFK voter in louisiana of all places, that would probably have a lot more theoretical impact on the upcoming election
Israel gonna Israel.
How do any of us convince some genocidal maniacs 6000 miles away to have a freaking conscience.
You know those pics of Gaza City where Israel has flattened entire blocks with non-guided 2000 pound bombs. Care to guess where they are made and who sends them to Israel?
If everyone on here spent their energy trying to convince the good team to stop arming a genocide instead of scolding a dumbass RFK voter in louisiana of all places, that would probably have a lot more theoretical impact on the upcoming election
Israel gonna Israel.
How do any of us convince some genocidal maniacs 6000 miles away to have a freaking conscience.
I don’t think any US president could get away with fully threatening military support of Israel, but I wish at the least they’d set some sort of restriction on what we give them so it’s exclusively for defense (ie Iron Dome materials only) and can’t be used for slaughtering Palestinians.
And I would very much like to see Biden start sanctioning Israeli leaders. They’ve been hinting it’ll happen if Israel invades Rafah. I’d prefer he not wait.
How do any of us convince some genocidal maniacs 6000 miles away to have a freaking conscience.
I don’t think any US president could get away with fully threatening military support of Israel, but I wish at the least they’d set some sort of restriction on what we give them so it’s exclusively for defense (ie Iron Dome materials only) and can’t be used for slaughtering Palestinians.
And I would very much like to see Biden start sanctioning Israeli leaders. They’ve been hinting it’ll happen if Israel invades Rafah. I’d prefer he not wait.
Reagan did it. He delayed delivery of jets. Called and condemned actions to the PM. In fact Reagan and Bush Sr let like 5 times more UN resolutions pass that condemned Israeli military actions than Obama and Biden have.
That’s not to say they were better on the issue per se or times are the same. Just saying it certainly can be done.
How do any of us convince some genocidal maniacs 6000 miles away to have a freaking conscience.
You know those pics of Gaza City where Israel has flattened entire blocks with non-guided 2000 pound bombs. Care to guess where they are made and who sends them to Israel?
Oh I'm fully aware.
These people have no regard for human life. What makes you think anything can change?
The world is run by evil, bought and sold to the highest bidders. You die if you threaten someone's money - whether it's the military industrial complex, Coca Cola, Boeing, whoever. You're just a pawn in someone else's chess game.
The world is run by evil, bought and sold to the highest bidders. You die if you threaten someone's money - whether it's the military industrial complex, Coca Cola, Boeing, whoever. You're just a pawn in someone else's chess game.
and that's why we all need to make sure the guy in louisiana gets sufficiently vote scolded
The world is run by evil, bought and sold to the highest bidders. You die if you threaten someone's money - whether it's the military industrial complex, Coca Cola, Boeing, whoever. You're just a pawn in someone else's chess game.
I was going to come in here with a hopeful platitude. But you are right, we are fucked. I'm going to go eat a bag of mini Cadbury eggs.
Now that I'm thinking of it, I remember the guy in Louisiana. He somewhat recently got married and had a kid.
Dude, why? I mean, just think of how much the world sucks now. And now imagine it 50 years from now, as a result of - MAGA, climate change, war, famine, diminishing resources. Shit, I don't even want this life. I didn't ask to be in this godforsaken hell. Nevermind in 2075 when it's exponentially worse.
At least we're all being honest with ourselves right now.
I'd counter by also saying that throughout almost all of human history, things have been fucked up. Life has always been hard and terrible people have almost always ruled. But every year pretty eerily seems like the year before it. Every day is basically the same as the day before. All you can do is live your life how you want to live it and hope it isn't your turn to have something awful happen to you. And focus on the good shit
It's cute that y’all are being optimistic. We're 1000% getting Trump back, and the MAGA mob will rule us for an extended period of time. The cruelty and suffering is coming. 2020 was a fluke, they're not taking another L.
Now that I'm thinking of it, I remember the guy in Louisiana. He somewhat recently got married and had a kid.
Dude, why? I mean, just think of how much the world sucks now. And now imagine it 50 years from now, as a result of - MAGA, climate change, war, famine, diminishing resources. Shit, I don't even want this life. I didn't ask to be in this godforsaken hell. Nevermind in 2075 when it's exponentially worse.
You know those pics of Gaza City where Israel has flattened entire blocks with non-guided 2000 pound bombs. Care to guess where they are made and who sends them to Israel?
Oh I'm fully aware.
These people have no regard for human life. What makes you think anything can change?
I figured you did so I guess I still don’t get your point. Emoney was pretty clear what he was referring to. I elaborated on it because some liberals don’t seem to realize this at all. Judging by some in this thread that I’ve seen make sarcastic remarks about protesters’ clear and simple to understand demands.
We might not be able to stop Israel through diplomacy but the US doesn’t have to continue to be complicit by selling arms or giving military aid in various forms. Which in fact would limit them greatly.
Would it actually happen? Almost certainly not to the degree we would like to see. Barring some horrific scaling up of the slaughter that we’d have to respond to. I’m on the same page as you there. That doesn’t mean we can’t point it out and try to clarify the problem. Because the solutions are there. It’s not an impossible thing to accomplish. So it’s incorrect to say there is no hope. As narrow a slither as it might be.
Post by SupeЯfuЯЯyanimal on Mar 20, 2024 12:39:10 GMT -5
From my own experience…. If you are at a point where doom and gloom is all you see, step back from this thread and politics in general. The world is in a real shitty place but try not to let it consume you and keep you in a depressive funk. Cutting the shit out of your life is very helpful at times.
I don't think people with gifs for avatars should be allowed to vote
People that think this guy should be president shouldn’t be allowed to vote.
His voice alone.
Was just coming to post that clip to show what a joke he was. This was great. The problem is that the idiots that vote for him or for Trump don't seem to give a shit if people lie or say whatever bullshit. They ignore or simply don't care
But yeah, this was great use of journalism and an example of holding these fuckers accountable for their bullshit they spread
Btw, should we just turn this into a thread where we post videos of candidates saying dumb shit, getting confused, being racist, literally tripping and falling, slurring their speech, etc etc etc?
The archive of available clips out there demonstrating the fuck ups of Biden and Trump is astonishing.
Btw, should we just turn this into a thread where we post videos of candidates saying dumb shit, getting confused, being racist, literally tripping and falling, slurring their speech, etc etc etc?
The archive of available clips out there demonstrating the fuck ups of Biden and Trump is astonishing.
Like this one for example:
It already has been that? Video clips of gaffes and fuck ups are regularly posted.
And if you're referring to the clip of RFK that just got posted that's not him being confused or misspeaking or stuttering or whatever. That's a person running for office being confronted with very specific things he's said multiple times on the record and not being able to defend his points or explain himself. It's a bit different than Trump slurring or Biden falling off a bike