I seriously wanna thank everyone for their optimism. I checked the weather, and saw 40% chance of thundershowers, I got kinda down prematurely. Then I read everyone saying it will be nothing, or a little rain will be nice....It cheered me up!
I love the positive energy that surrounds everything Roo!
FORECAST MODELS INDICATE WITH DECENT AGREEMENT THAT THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WHICH HAS DOMINATED OUR WEATHER SINCE LATE MAY WILL GRADUALLY LOSE INFLUENCE AS TROUGHING DEVELOPS OVER THE NORTHEAST CONUS. WEAK SURFACE FEATURES WILL DRIVE OUR WEATHER AS THIS TRANSITION TAKES PLACE ALOFT.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE BY THURSDAY AS THE SURFACE RIDGE SHIFTS EASTWARD PUTTING OUR AREA IN A WEAK SOUTHWEST FLOW AT THE SURFACE. THE UPPER RIDGE SHOULD WEAKEN ENOUGH AS WELL TO ALLOW FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS...BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. PROGS THEN INDICATE WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL TRAVERSE THE OHIO VALLEY OVER THE WEEKEND WITH A DIFFUSE SURFACE FRONT SAGGING INTO THE REGION. THESE FEATURES SHOULD AUGMENT THE NORMAL DIURNAL CONVECTIVE PATTERN WITH SLIGHTLY BETTER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ANTICIPATED SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
UNSEASONABLY WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND...
In summary: ridge looks to break down... meaning we're much more likely to see 'popup' style [afternoon/diurnal] storms. Also, a low develops toward the end of the week, and the possibility of a diffuse front draping down to TN means we could see more widespread rain sat/sun. BRING IT ON.
Last Edit: Jun 7, 2011 8:39:42 GMT -5 by Guest - Back to Top
AS LOW LEVEL FLOW SWITCHES FROM SOUTHEASTERLY TO A MORE SOUTH AND SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, EXPECT A SLIGHT INCREASE IN ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE AND THE POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS. PW`S INCREASE AT BNA FROM 1.32 INCHES AT 00Z/07, TO 1.42 INCHES AT 00Z/10.
ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY A COLD FRONT SAGS SOUTHWARD FROM THE MIDWEST INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY, WITH A BAND OF INCREASED ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE SAGGING INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY ALONG WITH AN INCREASED CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. EXPECT A SERIES OF WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVES TO SWEEP ACROSS OUR AREA DURING THE PERIOD, AS 1000-500MB THICKNESS PATTERN ALSO LEADS TO AN INCREASED LIKELIHOOD FOR THUNDERSTORM PROPAGATION OUT OF KENTUCKY, INTO OUR NORTHERN AND EASTERN COUNTIES (ESPECIALLY EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING). THUS, WILL GO WITH AN EXPECTATION FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION MOST AREAS BOTH DAYS.
I kind of expected it, but it's still a bummer that ridge broke down. I sort of prefer sunny skies.
Last Edit: Jun 7, 2011 8:42:21 GMT -5 by Guest - Back to Top
Post by Mista Don't Play on Jun 7, 2011 9:17:08 GMT -5
I think we are going to have pretty good weather this weekend. The likelihood of rain seems stronger on Saturday and Sunday, but the increased presence of conditions for thunderstorms should bring some clouds into the area. So look for sunshine, with some clouds in the sky for the majority of the weekend, with some rain, possibly, Friday afternoon, but more likely on Saturday and Sunday.
well: -there can be high pressure/ridging over the area, which means little or no rain and plenty of sun (like last year). -There can also be relatively zonal flow, which is more conducive to daily/afternoon showers that are scattered (rains in centeroo but not at the walmart). -OR, there can be a cyclone with fronts, which causes widespread rain with high certainty.
For the last week there has been a strong ridge over most of the SE United States. That ridge is supposed to break down later this week (meaning afternoon clouds and scattered showers--typical summer weather). And over the weekend, a cyclone is projected to develop with a front that could mean widespread rain over TN (this could be morning/night rain, not necessarily afternoon rain).
Basically.... I hadn't planned on packing any rain gear with that huge ridge in place. Now I'm packing a poncho, rain boots, an umbrella, and an extra tent fly.
Last Edit: Jun 7, 2011 9:48:54 GMT -5 by Guest - Back to Top