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Post by BonnarooDetective on Apr 13, 2008 10:56:12 GMT -5
My only guess would be that one vote came from an account which has now been deleted; and therefore, the poll doesn't count that person as a voter, but fails to take out that person's vote.
Post by BonnarooDetective on Apr 13, 2008 11:12:24 GMT -5
Alright, 50 votes are in, I'll run some numbers . . .
Metallica - 52% Attendance= 41,000 people Pearl Jam - 86% Attendance = 68,000 people Jack Johnson - 52% Attendence = 41,000 people
*Note: All figures rounded down to the nearest thousand based on the assumption that some of you will pass-out (or space-out) and miss the show. This poll also assumes Bonnaroo sells out, so the number are based on a population of 80000
With only 50 votes, the margin of error is very high: 14% (+/- 11,000 people) with at a 95% confidence level. One might also consider the fact that this poll was conducted on a message board whose population is Bonnaroo obsessed. Although this is purely speculative, I think these are the kinds of people who are certainly more likely to attend a show than the casual Bonnaroo goer. Therefore, I think these attendance numbers are probably inflated to some degree.
Post by BonnarooDetective on Apr 13, 2008 12:42:20 GMT -5
It wouldn't surprise me at all. On top of the fact that a lot of people don't like Metallica to begin with, the fact that MMJ follows them on Which stage makes it even more likely that people will either skip Metallica or bail out early. Jack Johnson is another artist that many people are not interested in seeing, and playing Sunday night doesn't help. Before the line-up came out, most of us expected JJ would be on it, I don't think many anticipated it would be in the headliner capacity. Three years ago he drew a crowd of 30,000 to 40,000 when he played Which stage.
On the other hand, Pearl Jam might be the highest attended show since Radiohead.
In all honesty, I think Kanye, The Allman Brother's Band, and possibly MMJ could all have bigger crowds than Metallica and/or Jack Johnson.
Post by BonnarooDetective on Apr 13, 2008 20:14:42 GMT -5
There aren't 75 votes yet, but I got bored, so here's the numbers at 67 votes:
Metallica - 56.5% Attendance = 45,000 people Pearl Jam - 88.7% Attendance = 71,000 people Jack Johnson - 55% Attendance = 44,000 people
Once again, I assumed a sell-out (80,000 people). And, once again, I rounded down to the nearest thousand assuming that some people will pass out, excluding Jack Johnson, who came out even, and also Pearl Jam, who I rounded up (mostly because the total came to 70,960, but also because people tend to gravitate towards large crowds); so I guess I only rounded Metallica down, but look at your source.
I won't miss a minute of Pearl Jam, and will likely check out JJ's performance. He will be the first Sunday headliner I'll see in 4 Roos.
Might check out some of Metallica's set before getting a spot for MMJ, but not counting that as seeing them for the purposes of this poll. Of course all of us waiting for MMJ will at least hear their show (whether we want to or not).
I tend to think 30% for all three is pretty good for these boards. I'd say the percentage amongst the general roo going public is probably higher.
I agree that the percentage of civilians who go to see Metallica will be greater than the percentage of inforooers. Jack Johnson, not so much, because people are gonna be tired, and leaving, etc. You gotta remember, though...Friday night, people are gonna be curious, they'll at least check out Metallica.
Now, the number of people who watch the FULL set will probably be a lot smaller.
my only definite is Metallica. but i'll check out PJ and/or JJ if i'm not waiting for better things / if i feel like it. we'll see once the schedule comes out...
