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Nah, I think we just let someone pick them whenever. If you take the Lions, you weren't counting on this as a win, and a win is a bonus but if it makes you take them higher, then you play differently than I do. I think we're fine.
Has anyone wont this with the first pick? It seems like a tough task with final selections in the dregs of the league.
We only played two or three seasons so far, but I don't think 1st pick has won our league. First pick is a split hair better than a 1:10 chance so should win at like 10.1% of the time. The first year we played we used the original Bill Simmons method which advantaged Player 1 (+1.4 wins), Player 2 (+0.7 wins) and disadvantaged Players 4 (-0.7 wins) and Player 8 (-0.6 wins). The 2019 El Dorado method limits any advantage or disadvantage to +0.1 win (Player 1, Player 5 and Player 7) and -0.1 win (Players 3, 4 and 9).
The thing is, while the pickings are slim at the bottom of the league, look at last year's undrafted teams (so teams 31 and 32) which were the Seattle Seahawks and New York Jets. The Seahawks ended up going 9-8 while the Jets went 7-10. Seahawks actually had a better record than 16 other teams. So if someone would have grabbed them (me included), I could have actually won second and not finished in 3rd after my worst team (second round draft) the Titans ended up underperforming.
Has anyone wont this with the first pick? It seems like a tough task with final selections in the dregs of the league.
We only played two or three seasons so far, but I don't think 1st pick has won our league. First pick is a split hair better than a 1:10 chance so should win at like 10.1% of the time. The first year we played we used the original Bill Simmons method which advantaged Player 1 (+1.4 wins), Player 2 (+0.7 wins) and disadvantaged Players 4 (-0.7 wins) and Player 8 (-0.6 wins). The 2019 El Dorado method limits any advantage or disadvantage to +0.1 win (Player 1, Player 5 and Player 7) and -0.1 win (Players 3, 4 and 9).
The thing is, while the pickings are slim at the bottom of the league, look at last year's undrafted teams (so teams 31 and 32) which were the Seattle Seahawks and New York Jets. The Seahawks ended up going 9-8 while the Jets went 7-10. Seahawks actually had a better record than 16 other teams. So if someone would have grabbed them (me included), I could have actually won second and not finished in 3rd after my worst team (second round draft) the Titans ended up underperforming.
Yeah, I had this come up in another wins pool I run. The El Dorado method tries to equalize the chances of picking teams with wins based on preseason over/under totals. So if you lined up all over/under totals ranked from 1-32, and drafted them that way, you'd have with .1 of the same projected wins totals for everyone. It seems like a fair way to do it to me. The thing that he explains is that the wins curve is not equally distributed, and there's a lot more equity to having the top pick than the difference in picks in the bottom 10-12.
Post by potentpotables on Sept 8, 2023 14:34:41 GMT -5
OK, I think we are going to institute a time clock. We'll give thepeppers until 7pm tonight. After that, if no pick, he'll get the next highest win total over/under as defined by draft kings (the app i use so can check). If there's a tie, we'll go by opposite conference, then not the same division.
After that, let's try to make picks in 2 hours. 10pm-8am will be excepted tonight into tomorrow morning. But we need to get moving a bit. I didn't mind the Lions being picked but we should try to finish before 1pm eastern on Sunday. Any objections? Or criteria to add for auto picks we make?
Or we could do NFL draft style - he can pick but now spent can pick too.
Yeah maybe give him 5 more minutes or something. You figure the whole draft would take maybe 12 minutes, but everybody has their schedules. I’ll text spent whenever you say go
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