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Post by jorgeandthekraken on Aug 5, 2024 7:59:34 GMT -5
OK, so, I am a business/finance idiot. But I could swear that, just last week, I saw an article on CNN or AP about how the US was headed for a recession-free "soft landing." And now the sky is falling. Can someone ELI5 how that changed so cataclysmically and so quickly?
OK, so, I am a business/finance idiot. But I could swear that, just last week, I saw an article on CNN or AP about how the US was headed for a recession-free "soft landing." And now the sky is falling. Can someone ELI5 how that changed so cataclysmically and so quickly?
Also a finance idiot but my guess is republican donors are working market into as bad as shape as possible to influence the election.
OK, so, I am a business/finance idiot. But I could swear that, just last week, I saw an article on CNN or AP about how the US was headed for a recession-free "soft landing." And now the sky is falling. Can someone ELI5 how that changed so cataclysmically and so quickly?
people were shorting the value of the Yen and the Japanese Bank raised their interest rates in an attempt to increase the strength of the Yen, and now everyone got margin called and are selling other assets to cover the trade
The narrative shifted with Friday's jobs report. We went from soft landing to "the fed waited too long" and now there's a bunch of panic/fear impacting the market. Time will tell whether or not it's justified, but sentiment can change quickly. Maybe this leads to a bigger initial cut next month?
The narrative shifted with Friday's jobs report. We went from soft landing to "the fed waited too long" and now there's a bunch of panic/fear impacting the market. Time will tell whether or not it's justified, but sentiment can change quickly. Maybe this leads to a bigger initial cut next month?
Pretty fun how the entire national economy is just vibes.
OK, so, I am a business/finance idiot. But I could swear that, just last week, I saw an article on CNN or AP about how the US was headed for a recession-free "soft landing." And now the sky is falling. Can someone ELI5 how that changed so cataclysmically and so quickly?
Also a finance idiot but my guess is republican donors are working market into as bad as shape as possible to influence the election.
Feels like this is the case
Hell, Thom Hartmann was theorizing this way back in 2013 - but for the first Trump election.
The narrative shifted with Friday's jobs report. We went from soft landing to "the fed waited too long" and now there's a bunch of panic/fear impacting the market. Time will tell whether or not it's justified, but sentiment can change quickly. Maybe this leads to a bigger initial cut next month?
Pretty fun how the entire national economy is just vibes.
Vibes haven't been good since Biden dropped out and sent the election back to a toss up
The narrative shifted with Friday's jobs report. We went from soft landing to "the fed waited too long" and now there's a bunch of panic/fear impacting the market. Time will tell whether or not it's justified, but sentiment can change quickly. Maybe this leads to a bigger initial cut next month?
Pretty fun how the entire national economy is just vibes.
its def not just vibes, pretty big risk event occurred and there were a number of folks that felt overexposed and they pulled back + forced selling on the currency trade.
Pretty fun how the entire national economy is just vibes.
its def not just vibes, pretty big risk event occurred and there were a number of folks that felt overexposed and they pulled back + forced selling on the currency trade.
Well what you’re talking about and the recession talk the media is frothing about are two different things.
The risk of a recession has ticked up a little, but most serious people still think it’s unlikely in the near term.
Market writers have been calling this NVDA Day. The main fund I have in my 401k has 9.6% of their portfolio in it, and I know some people who bought after the 10:1 split. Here's hoping their after-market earnings release leads to large cash inflows into Giant Tech. Little boy blue, he needed the money.
I think the Federal Reserve will announce a rate cut today which I also believe is the first one of the Biden/Harris years. They've been up against the headwind of high borrowing rates because the economy overall has done so well. It's kind remarkable (and unprecedented) that from all that recession talk from a few years ago, we got through that with flying colors and the strongest economy in the world. Investors are trying to figure out if the fed cuts a quarter or half point off the rate. They're usually pretty cautious, so it's probably more likely that it will be a quarter % cut. This will lead to some mixed emotions but overall show we're on a good path. If they go for a full .5% cut, look for the markets to react more strongly.
they should cut for a lot of reasons, I am not disagreeing, but it is p wild to cut interest rates when the S&P is up 19% YTD. obviously speaks to how great of a job Biden has done that no one wants to give him credit for as well etc etc
