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Jortles was Mafia, dude. He was active on the board after the reveal. If he were Town, he would have challenged the reveal. He didn't. He's for sure Mafia, which leaves two options: either Rummy was Mafia with Jortles and faked, then lynched herself, and two Mafia got killed for no reason at all when there were three left and they could have won the game on Day 3, OR Rummy is the Inspector and I'm Town. I'm Town, dude. You keep refusing to rule out literally any scenario at all, even the ones that involved completely irrational Mafia behavior. Not just unlikely, but absurd ways to act for Mafia.
I know at least ome of you is Town. Anyone else feel like explaining Mafia to this guy, or what is your read on this?
I'm confused as fuck, I'm not sure if I'm reading what I think I'm reading or if my corn has more butter then normal. I'm especially torn due thinking mafia cant act like that but this could be the best reverse psychology performance in history.
Mr.BelgianAmbers am I remembering correctly that in addition to last game you also played at least 1 years back?
I wish my entire thought process now wasn't wtf is going in Mander's brain
Jortles was Mafia, dude. He was active on the board after the reveal. If he were Town, he would have challenged the reveal. He didn't. He's for sure Mafia, which leaves two options: either Rummy was Mafia with Jortles and faked, then lynched herself, and two Mafia got killed for no reason at all when there were three left and they could have won the game on Day 3, OR Rummy is the Inspector and I'm Town. I'm Town, dude. You keep refusing to rule out literally any scenario at all, even the ones that involved completely irrational Mafia behavior. Not just unlikely, but absurd ways to act for Mafia.
Again, you're trying to convince me (and anyone else) of something that's not a fact.
Jortles "He's for sure mafia" - incorrect
If you look at Rummy NOT being inspector, Jortles wasn't mafia. However you look at it. Doesn't matter if he fought it or not.
YOU should stop making claims that these are all facts. None of it is. There's no point talking to you because you're just trying to make all what I say seem pointless so I wouldn't be supported.
T3ddy F1a1rcarini12 I'm sorry for my posts during your inactivity this evening. But take into account both these scenarios.
1. Rummy was indeed inspector, all what I say is stupid.
2. Rummy was mafia, all what I say makes sense.
Decide for yourself what is true. Like I stated before several days ago, don't make assumptions and make your own choices.
I'm not obligating you to take a closer look at Potent/Pablo either for whatever game they're playing at the moment. I just feel I'm right.
Pablo I don't give a shit if you think I'm stupid. You're in too deep into the "Manders doesn't know how to play" game.
I know at least ome of you is Town. Anyone else feel like explaining Mafia to this guy, or what is your read on this?
I'm confused as fuck, I'm not sure if I'm reading what I think I'm reading or if my corn has more butter then normal. I'm especially torn due thinking mafia cant act like that but this could be the best reverse psychology performance in history.
Mr.BelgianAmbers am I remembering correctly that in addition to last game you also played at least 1 years back?
I wish my entire thought process now wasn't wtf is going in Mander's brain
I played several times in high school (very similar game) in addition of 1 or 2 times on inforoo.
Y'all just added some rules and love dragging this thing out for no reason at all sometimes.
Being considered dumb/crazy in mafia's opinion kept me in this game which was kinda my strategy in the beginning.
Never thought it would become such a focus this late in the game as I thought I would've died already.
Might or might not turn out to work in town's favor. We'll see.
Post by piggy pablo on Apr 14, 2020 1:15:31 GMT -5
I mean, you aren't willing to listen or make decisions based on the most likely, like 90+% likely, scenario. Bouncing on Town if a fake reveal named him would be an incredibly major asshole move for Jortles. All Townies would hate him for it. He's Mafia, trying not to give anyone anything to work with by talking.
If you aren't even able to recognize that, you're just firing blind. You have to be able to use some kind of reasoning. Town can't win by just going off of their hunches the entire game. By Day 4, with a reveal and no counter, things are starting to crystallize. Jortles not taking or talking is literally a gift from Mafia to Town. It completely telegraphs his role. The one assumption you can make is that Jortles is Mafia, and you're squandering it.
I mean, you aren't willing to listen or make decisions based on the most likely, like 90+% likely, scenario. Bouncing on Town if a fake reveal named him would be an incredibly major asshole move for Jortles. All Townies would hate him for it. He's Mafia, trying not to give anyone anything to work with by talking.
If you aren't even able to recognize that, you're just firing blind. You have to be able to use some kind of reasoning. Town can't win by just going off of their hunches the entire game. By Day 4, with a reveal and no counter, things are starting to crystallize. Jortles not taking or talking is literally a gift from Mafia to Town. It completely telegraphs his role. The one assumption you can make is that Jortles is Mafia, and you're squandering it.
Not true. I think Jortles played this perfectly (if intentionally, cause he didn't make a single post)
If he hadn't figured out who to point fingers to, whatever he would've said would not have made a difference.
Keep putting pressure on the fact you're guaranteed town. Can't back out now.
Tell me again, how many times has town won this game? Is there a scoreboard mafia vs. town?
I typoed "not taking" and corrected it to "not faking" which was my intent.
I don't know exactly. Town usually loses. It's a very hard game for Town to win. We're lucky in this one that we got an Inspector reveal in this one. We're lucky that we know Jortles was Mafia (well, everyone but you knows this). We're unlucky that Jaz was cleared but was dead before the reveal. We're lucky that the only confirmed Town is trying really fucking hard to salvage this. But I'd say even if I could talk some sense into you, it's maybe 50/50 Town will win. With you going after the only known Town, if two Mafia are left and all three of you vote for me, that's a Mafia win. Potent could be Mafia, though. I don't know.
Post by Mr.BelgianAmbers on Apr 14, 2020 1:42:47 GMT -5
Wow seems everything is setup for a town win if they believe you. Seems everything is setup for a mafia win if they believe me.
Everyone makes their own decisions. But if they follow you then town has had a lot of luck. Like you stated. That's what actually makes me suspicious.
Look, I'm the only person at this point willing to bet on a bluff/strategy that is setup by mafia. And you keep insisting that I should follow with what you "assume". You dress your assumptions up like they're facts.
Jortles was Mafia, dude. He was active on the board after the reveal. If he were Town, he would have challenged the reveal. He didn't. He's for sure Mafia, which leaves two options: either Rummy was Mafia with Jortles and faked, then lynched herself, and two Mafia got killed for no reason at all when there were three left and they could have won the game on Day 3, OR Rummy is the Inspector and I'm Town. I'm Town, dude. You keep refusing to rule out literally any scenario at all, even the ones that involved completely irrational Mafia behavior. Not just unlikely, but absurd ways to act for Mafia.
Again, you're trying to convince me (and anyone else) of something that's not a fact.
Jortles "He's for sure mafia" - incorrect
If you look at Rummy NOT being inspector, Jortles wasn't mafia. However you look at it. Doesn't matter if he fought it or not.
YOU should stop making claims that these are all facts. None of it is. There's no point talking to you because you're just trying to make all what I say seem pointless so I wouldn't be supported.
T3ddy F1a1rcarini12 I'm sorry for my posts during your inactivity this evening. But take into account both these scenarios.
1. Rummy was indeed inspector, all what I say is stupid.
2. Rummy was mafia, all what I say makes sense.
Decide for yourself what is true. Like I stated before several days ago, don't make assumptions and make your own choices.
I'm not obligating you to take a closer look at Potent/Pablo either for whatever game they're playing at the moment. I just feel I'm right.
Pablo I don't give a shit if you think I'm stupid. You're in too deep into the "Manders doesn't know how to play" game.
Are you trying to say Rummy was faking with these scenarios you are asking me to look at?
If you are saying that please be clear, we can get to whatever your endgame may be quicker
Again, you're trying to convince me (and anyone else) of something that's not a fact.
Jortles "He's for sure mafia" - incorrect
If you look at Rummy NOT being inspector, Jortles wasn't mafia. However you look at it. Doesn't matter if he fought it or not.
YOU should stop making claims that these are all facts. None of it is. There's no point talking to you because you're just trying to make all what I say seem pointless so I wouldn't be supported.
T3ddy F1a1rcarini12 I'm sorry for my posts during your inactivity this evening. But take into account both these scenarios.
1. Rummy was indeed inspector, all what I say is stupid.
2. Rummy was mafia, all what I say makes sense.
Decide for yourself what is true. Like I stated before several days ago, don't make assumptions and make your own choices.
I'm not obligating you to take a closer look at Potent/Pablo either for whatever game they're playing at the moment. I just feel I'm right.
Pablo I don't give a shit if you think I'm stupid. You're in too deep into the "Manders doesn't know how to play" game.
Are you trying to say Rummy was faking with these scenarios you are asking me to look at?
If you are saying that please be clear, we can get to whatever your endgame may be quicker
I do think the Rummy reveal was a fake. If you consider it fake, the endgame that mafia is trying to pull is clear.
Post by piggy pablo on Apr 14, 2020 1:52:45 GMT -5
I've gone into explicit detail as to the logic behind my assumptions. You've just ignored all of it with the reasoning "aha! A likely story!"
You threw out your top three based on assumptions which I've explained exactly why they're wrong, such as the extremely spurious concept that Danbob wss Mafia. I'm sorry, that makes zero sense whatsoever. Literally zero. But you took that and didn't reassess yourself, you just swapped in Rummy with Potent and myself. Jortles was Mafia. I've explained why. If you aren't willing to listen to me about that, yes, Mafia will win. It's not some genius scenario I constructed. It's the truth.
That's beside that fact that you've barely offered any reasoning for those three other than "Mafia will do anything!" Insofar as that's true, that isn't a rationale for picking any group of three over another.
I think of the remaining four, Teddy and Carini have basically been coasting all game, not really offering many thoughts of their own, when I know both have played the game before, even if Teddy was on a different site. Gun to my head, it's Jortles/Teddy/Carini, which also happens to be the worst case scenario given your "reasoning" that you think they're more Townish than myself and Potent.
Are you trying to say Rummy was faking with these scenarios you are asking me to look at?
If you are saying that please be clear, we can get to whatever your endgame may be quicker
I do think the Rummy reveal was a fake. If you consider it fake, the endgame that mafia is trying to pull is clear.
They whacked Rummy, nobody has counter claimed. There is no reason at all for me to consider it a fake at this point. She wasn't under duress, so I'm puzzled why a .mafia team with her would fake and sacrifice a member.
Next question is why are you so shocked to still be alive?
I do think the Rummy reveal was a fake. If you consider it fake, the endgame that mafia is trying to pull is clear.
They whacked Rummy, nobody has counter claimed. There is no reason at all for me to consider it a fake at this point. She wasn't under duress, so I'm puzzled why a .mafia team with her would fake and sacrifice a member.
Next question is why are you so shocked to still be alive?
Rummy being sacrificed kinda makes sense if you want the inspector reveal to come across genuine. Why would mafia ever let inspector survive. After a reveal (either real or fake), inspector is going to die. If not, it's obvious that inspector reveal was fake.
Why I'm shocked that I'm still alive? Well I thought my absence and "annoying" behavior would've made me a target which it did last roind, until (in my opinion) mafia kept me alive by pointing fingers to Jortles. Everyone followed Rummy and Pablo on that.
Only Jortles had a vote on me at the end. Also, not counter claiming is tricky to explain but what would Jortles have gained? Sure town would have known that the Rummy reveal might have been fake or not, but it would've protected rest of mafia as well.
Rummy was always gonna die and pulled a townie with her. Keeping 2 mafia in the game against 3 townies. Knowing that you and Teddy followed Rummy, mafia is coasting to victory if nothing changes. Potent has been off all game, and I think both Rummy and Pablo were convinced I was town but starting to fake doubt that to get me killed off next.
Additionally Rummy and Pablo also looked skeptical towards Potent who I was suspicious about all game. That's a misdirect in my opinion. To make sure you and Teddy look at me or him. Which I will always lose unless both you and Teddy go with Potent and I follow suit.
They whacked Rummy, nobody has counter claimed. There is no reason at all for me to consider it a fake at this point. She wasn't under duress, so I'm puzzled why a .mafia team with her would fake and sacrifice a member.
Next question is why are you so shocked to still be alive?
Rummy being sacrificed kinda makes sense if you want the inspector reveal to come across genuine. Why would mafia ever let inspector survive. After a reveal (either real or fake), inspector is going to die. If not, it's obvious that inspector reveal was fake.
Why I'm shocked that I'm still alive? Well I thought my absence and "annoying" behavior would've made me a target which it did last roind, until (in my opinion) mafia kept me alive by pointing fingers to Jortles. Everyone followed Rummy and Pablo on that.
Only Jortles had a vote on me at the end. Also, not counter claiming is tricky to explain but what would Jortles have gained? Sure town would have known that the Rummy reveal might have been fake or not, but it would've protected rest of mafia as well.
Rummy was always gonna die and pulled a townie with her. Keeping 2 mafia in the game against 3 townies. Knowing that you and Teddy followed Rummy, mafia is coasting to victory if nothing changes. Potent has been off all game, and I think both Rummy and Pablo were convinced I was town but starting to fake doubt that to get me killed off next.
Additionally Rummy and Pablo also looked skeptical towards Potent who I was suspicious about all game. That's a misdirect in my opinion. To make sure you and Teddy look at me or him. Which I will always lose unless both you and Teddy go with Potent and I follow suit.
Last question as I'm going to sleep. Since you believe Rummy to be faking and nobody else has stepped up to claim inspector do you believe Dan or Jaz was the real one?
Post by piggy pablo on Apr 14, 2020 4:08:33 GMT -5
LD how about that extension? I'm probably not even gonna be up by 11 AM my time. Can you push it another twelve hours or something? Teddy asked for one and hasn't had a chance to chime in since.
This is simply a placeholder in case something happens, since Potent is already on him:
Post by potentpotables on Apr 14, 2020 7:12:57 GMT -5
Sorry piggy pablo I was in bed relatively early. It seems I missed a lot.
I need to re-read this after I've had my morning coffee. But this really rubs me the wrong way from Manders. I've tried to be clear that I thought Manders was town, but now I don't know what to make of it.
Rummy being sacrificed kinda makes sense if you want the inspector reveal to come across genuine. Why would mafia ever let inspector survive. After a reveal (either real or fake), inspector is going to die. If not, it's obvious that inspector reveal was fake.
Why I'm shocked that I'm still alive? Well I thought my absence and "annoying" behavior would've made me a target which it did last roind, until (in my opinion) mafia kept me alive by pointing fingers to Jortles. Everyone followed Rummy and Pablo on that.
Only Jortles had a vote on me at the end. Also, not counter claiming is tricky to explain but what would Jortles have gained? Sure town would have known that the Rummy reveal might have been fake or not, but it would've protected rest of mafia as well.
Rummy was always gonna die and pulled a townie with her. Keeping 2 mafia in the game against 3 townies. Knowing that you and Teddy followed Rummy, mafia is coasting to victory if nothing changes. Potent has been off all game, and I think both Rummy and Pablo were convinced I was town but starting to fake doubt that to get me killed off next.
Additionally Rummy and Pablo also looked skeptical towards Potent who I was suspicious about all game. That's a misdirect in my opinion. To make sure you and Teddy look at me or him. Which I will always lose unless both you and Teddy go with Potent and I follow suit.
Last question as I'm going to sleep. Since you believe Rummy to be faking and nobody else has stepped up to claim inspector do you believe Dan or Jaz was the real one?
I don't know about the real one. If one of them was, it was most likely Dan and mafia got lucky D1.
Well, I've put my thoughts out there on previous days. As far as suspicion goes, it ranks (1) Teddy, (2) Carini, and (3) Manders for me. I'll initially vote in accordance with that but I'm certainly open to some other thoughts.
Potent > Teddy
Potent, either I misunderstand the "clear that manders was town" part you said. But this post clearly makes you suspicious of me right? Sorry I need coffee as well.
Well, I've put my thoughts out there on previous days. As far as suspicion goes, it ranks (1) Teddy, (2) Carini, and (3) Manders for me. I'll initially vote in accordance with that but I'm certainly open to some other thoughts.
Potent > Teddy
Potent, either I misunderstand the "clear that manders was town" part you said. But this post clearly makes you suspicious of me right? Sorry I need coffee as well.
Well - yes and no? I try to play the analytical game as much as possible, looking at possible combinations and what I would have to believe for each combination to be true. When I play off my instincts, they usually fail me, mostly because I don't believe them enough. So to answer your question - there are 5 of us left, I know my role, I know Pablo is town, so that means there are three people for one or two mafia spots. My ranking there is the order in which I find them suspicious when I analyze vote patterns and splits at the end of a given day. Based on that ranking, you are last of the people I was suspicious of in the three undefined people. But your play today is not really doing you any favors (Day 4 of the game, not April 14).
I thought it was clear you were town after Day 1. New information has muddied that - mostly your post-hoc explanation of Rummy faking, positing that Danbob was mafia (no chance), and doubting that Jortles was mafia (I'm paraphrasing, so my apologies if I got something inaccurate). I'm not sure what I want to do now.
Post by T3ddy F1a1r on Apr 14, 2020 13:13:18 GMT -5
In the interest of self preservation, I'm gonna have to join you there. Plus it makes no sense whatsoever for him to be the only one who doesn't believe rummy.
