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Trump isn't going to leave, he's going to force a nominee through before the election. He's going to assign loyalist electors in swing states, continue to destroy trust in the election process and mail in ballots. He won't concede blaming voter fraud and he'll have the court stacked to back him up and vote in his favor.
So I did an analysis of polling and projection data by comparing Hillary vs. Trump on Sept 24, 2016 to Biden vs. Trump on Sept 24, 2020. I also included a section in the analysis for comparing Election Day 2016 polling and projections to actual voting as a means of seeing which states were potentially more unpredictable and/or volatile. Here's what I concluded, assuming there are no major shifts/controversies in the next six weeks:
There are only 18 viable "battleground" states - Arizona, Colorado, Florida, Georgia, Iowa, Maine 2nd District, Michigan, Minnesota, Nebraska 2nd District, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, South Carolina, Texas, Virginia, and Wisconsin. (Electoral count excluding these: Biden 190, Trump 116)
Of these 18, there are 10 that are pretty strongly trending or stabilized. Barring significant changes, I feel confident giving Colorado, Michigan, Minnesota, Nevada (least confidence), New Hampshire, and Virginia to Biden. I feel confident giving Georgia, Iowa, South Carolina, and Texas to Trump. I went back and forth with including Nevada as "strongly Biden", but polling has been steady at about a 4.5% lead for Biden, and projections in 2016 were spot on for the state. (New electoral count: Biden 248, Trump 183)
So that leaves 8 locations: Arizona (11 electoral votes), Florida (29), Maine 2nd District (1), Nebraska 2nd District (1), North Carolina (15), Ohio (18), Pennsylvania (20), and Wisconsin (10). Biden has an advantage in Wisconsin by about 6.0%, in Pennsylvania by about 4.5%, Arizona by 2.7%, and Nebraska 2nd by 2.5%. However, on Election Day Hillary was projected to win by 5.3% in Wisconsin and 3.7% in Pennsylvania. She instead lost both states by less than a percentage point. The rest are within about 1% or less. And while Ohio is a virtual tie at the moment, Trump was suspected to win Ohio by less than 2% in 2016 and instead won by over 8%. North Carolina polls give a very slight edge to Biden, but historically it would be very surprising to see Biden win the state. Maine's 2nd District is a coin toss. Florida is the biggest wild card in this group. Not only does it have the largest number of electoral votes at 29, but polling has been very close all year.
For Biden to win here are the basic scenarios:
If Biden wins Florida, he wins.
If Biden wins Pennsylvania + Nebraska 2nd District + Maine 2nd District, he wins.
If Biden wins Pennsylvania + any one state out of Wisconsin, Arizona, North Carolina, or Ohio, he wins.
If Biden wins North Carolina and either Wisconsin or Arizona, he wins.
If Biden wins Ohio and either Wisconsin or Arizona, he wins.
If Biden wins Wisconsin, Arizona, and either 2nd district, he wins.
Another very interesting fact - When comparing Sept 24, 2016 to Sept 24, 2020, Biden is out-performing Hillary in ALL EIGHTEEN LOCATIONS. Every single one.
This analysis is obviously subject to change as we get closer to Nov 3rd. Also, if Trump refuses to leave office and we have another civil war, none of this will matter. But I might update it every few weeks just for fun.
So I did an analysis of polling and projection data by comparing Hillary vs. Trump on Sept 24, 2016 to Biden vs. Trump on Sept 24, 2020. I also included a section in the analysis for comparing Election Day 2016 polling and projections to actual voting as a means of seeing which states were potentially more unpredictable and/or volatile. Here's what I concluded, assuming there are no major shifts/controversies in the next six weeks:
There are only 18 viable "battleground" states - Arizona, Colorado, Florida, Georgia, Iowa, Maine 2nd District, Michigan, Minnesota, Nebraska 2nd District, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, South Carolina, Texas, Virginia, and Wisconsin. (Electoral count excluding these: Biden 190, Trump 116)
Of these 18, there are 10 that are pretty strongly trending or stabilized. Barring significant changes, I feel confident giving Colorado, Michigan, Minnesota, Nevada (least confidence), New Hampshire, and Virginia to Biden. I feel confident giving Georgia, Iowa, South Carolina, and Texas to Trump. I went back and forth with including Nevada as "strongly Biden", but polling has been steady at about a 4.5% lead for Biden, and projections in 2016 were spot on for the state. (New electoral count: Biden 248, Trump 183)
So that leaves 8 locations: Arizona (11 electoral votes), Florida (29), Maine 2nd District (1), Nebraska 2nd District (1), North Carolina (15), Ohio (18), Pennsylvania (20), and Wisconsin (10). Biden has an advantage in Wisconsin by about 6.0%, in Pennsylvania by about 4.5%, Arizona by 2.7%, and Nebraska 2nd by 2.5%. However, on Election Day Hillary was projected to win by 5.3% in Wisconsin and 3.7% in Pennsylvania. She instead lost both states by less than a percentage point. The rest are within about 1% or less. And while Ohio is a virtual tie at the moment, Trump was suspected to win Ohio by less than 2% in 2016 and instead won by over 8%. North Carolina polls give a very slight edge to Biden, but historically it would be very surprising to see Biden win the state. Maine's 2nd District is a coin toss. Florida is the biggest wild card in this group. Not only does it have the largest number of electoral votes at 29, but polling has been very close all year.
For Biden to win here are the basic scenarios:
If Biden wins Florida, he wins.
If Biden wins Pennsylvania + Nebraska 2nd District + Maine 2nd District, he wins.
If Biden wins Pennsylvania + any one state out of Wisconsin, Arizona, or North Carolina, he wins.
If Biden wins North Carolina and either Wisconsin or Arizona, he wins.
If Biden wins Wisconsin, Arizona, and either 2nd district, he wins.
Another very interesting fact - When comparing Sept 24, 2016 to Sept 24, 2020, Biden is out-performing Hillary in ALL EIGHTEEN LOCATIONS. Every single one.
This analysis is obviously subject to change as we get closer to Nov 3rd. Also, if Trump refuses to leave office and we have another civil war, none of this will matter. But I might update it every few weeks just for fun.
Thank you for actual analysis and not just skyfalling rhetoric like most of this thread.
Post by abefroman1 on Sept 24, 2020 17:41:52 GMT -5
Is it really skyfalling when just yesterday it was publicly announced they are going to sue to stop votes from being counted and have the election awarded by installing biased electors/judges?
It's not like this is speculation. The criminals are announcing their crimes to the public because they are not afraid of being stopped.
We are heading towards a cliff where all these "alternative facts" from the last 4 years culminate to show the 2 realities America lives in. In one reality, Biden will probably get to 270 electoral votes easily. In the other reality they will claim Biden never won any of those states listed above.
The last hope is this: what reality do the electors and judges live in?
Principle and GOP are two words that don’t go together. Screw that. Pressure could work. Back to my hooker and booze idea. Procedural obstacles. Sure. Let’s throw everything we got at them. What do we got?
knowing the dems they’ll go down the “principled” route and fail miserably
This feels a bit reductive imo. Like, I can acknowledge that America has some serious problems, Donald Trump aside. But to say this isn’t a uniquely important election is wrong. Trump is a fascist who is tiptoeing his way to dictatorship by the day. I’m not saying America is more important that other countries but there are tremendous global consequences to the end of American democracy, as well as the personal consequences that many of us are facing/might face down the road.
Post by Dave Maynar on Sept 26, 2020 11:48:26 GMT -5
Holy shit. I saw my first commercial for the debate on Tuesday on Fox. The fact that it had the exact same music, graphics and tone that they use for UFC fights reminds me of how the trouble we're in doesn't end after the election.
Holy shit. I saw my first commercial for the debate on Tuesday on Fox. The fact that it had the exact same music, graphics and tone that they use for UFC fights reminds me of how the trouble we're in doesn't end after the election.
People joked around but Trump really has treated this all like a reality show. Constant talk about ratings. Giving teasers (like him saying a couple days ago he'd announce his SCOTUS pick on Saturday so "stay tuned"). It's all just a big game for him and it's one where he somehow keeps gaining money and power.
My mom put a Biden-Harris sign in our yard and it didn't last six hours before someone trespassed onto our property and took it. I'm livid lol. I hate Biden but what a snowflake that they can't handle someone supporting a different brand of Republican than them. This country is deeply fucked. I hope Biden gets elected so that other countries will allow our disease-ridden shithole's residents to travel there and never return.
So I did an analysis of polling and projection data by comparing Hillary vs. Trump on Sept 24, 2016 to Biden vs. Trump on Sept 24, 2020. I also included a section in the analysis for comparing Election Day 2016 polling and projections to actual voting as a means of seeing which states were potentially more unpredictable and/or volatile. Here's what I concluded, assuming there are no major shifts/controversies in the next six weeks:
There are only 18 viable "battleground" states - Arizona, Colorado, Florida, Georgia, Iowa, Maine 2nd District, Michigan, Minnesota, Nebraska 2nd District, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, South Carolina, Texas, Virginia, and Wisconsin. (Electoral count excluding these: Biden 190, Trump 116)
Of these 18, there are 10 that are pretty strongly trending or stabilized. Barring significant changes, I feel confident giving Colorado, Michigan, Minnesota, Nevada (least confidence), New Hampshire, and Virginia to Biden. I feel confident giving Georgia, Iowa, South Carolina, and Texas to Trump. I went back and forth with including Nevada as "strongly Biden", but polling has been steady at about a 4.5% lead for Biden, and projections in 2016 were spot on for the state. (New electoral count: Biden 248, Trump 183)
So that leaves 8 locations: Arizona (11 electoral votes), Florida (29), Maine 2nd District (1), Nebraska 2nd District (1), North Carolina (15), Ohio (18), Pennsylvania (20), and Wisconsin (10). Biden has an advantage in Wisconsin by about 6.0%, in Pennsylvania by about 4.5%, Arizona by 2.7%, and Nebraska 2nd by 2.5%. However, on Election Day Hillary was projected to win by 5.3% in Wisconsin and 3.7% in Pennsylvania. She instead lost both states by less than a percentage point. The rest are within about 1% or less. And while Ohio is a virtual tie at the moment, Trump was suspected to win Ohio by less than 2% in 2016 and instead won by over 8%. North Carolina polls give a very slight edge to Biden, but historically it would be very surprising to see Biden win the state. Maine's 2nd District is a coin toss. Florida is the biggest wild card in this group. Not only does it have the largest number of electoral votes at 29, but polling has been very close all year.
For Biden to win here are the basic scenarios:
If Biden wins Florida, he wins.
If Biden wins Pennsylvania + Nebraska 2nd District + Maine 2nd District, he wins.
If Biden wins Pennsylvania + any one state out of Wisconsin, Arizona, North Carolina, or Ohio, he wins.
If Biden wins North Carolina and either Wisconsin or Arizona, he wins.
If Biden wins Ohio and either Wisconsin or Arizona, he wins.
If Biden wins Wisconsin, Arizona, and either 2nd district, he wins.
Another very interesting fact - When comparing Sept 24, 2016 to Sept 24, 2020, Biden is out-performing Hillary in ALL EIGHTEEN LOCATIONS. Every single one.
This analysis is obviously subject to change as we get closer to Nov 3rd. Also, if Trump refuses to leave office and we have another civil war, none of this will matter. But I might update it every few weeks just for fun.
What’s your logic for giving Michigan to Biden? Aren’t projections there off in 2016?
So I did an analysis of polling and projection data by comparing Hillary vs. Trump on Sept 24, 2016 to Biden vs. Trump on Sept 24, 2020. I also included a section in the analysis for comparing Election Day 2016 polling and projections to actual voting as a means of seeing which states were potentially more unpredictable and/or volatile. Here's what I concluded, assuming there are no major shifts/controversies in the next six weeks:
There are only 18 viable "battleground" states - Arizona, Colorado, Florida, Georgia, Iowa, Maine 2nd District, Michigan, Minnesota, Nebraska 2nd District, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, South Carolina, Texas, Virginia, and Wisconsin. (Electoral count excluding these: Biden 190, Trump 116)
Of these 18, there are 10 that are pretty strongly trending or stabilized. Barring significant changes, I feel confident giving Colorado, Michigan, Minnesota, Nevada (least confidence), New Hampshire, and Virginia to Biden. I feel confident giving Georgia, Iowa, South Carolina, and Texas to Trump. I went back and forth with including Nevada as "strongly Biden", but polling has been steady at about a 4.5% lead for Biden, and projections in 2016 were spot on for the state. (New electoral count: Biden 248, Trump 183)
So that leaves 8 locations: Arizona (11 electoral votes), Florida (29), Maine 2nd District (1), Nebraska 2nd District (1), North Carolina (15), Ohio (18), Pennsylvania (20), and Wisconsin (10). Biden has an advantage in Wisconsin by about 6.0%, in Pennsylvania by about 4.5%, Arizona by 2.7%, and Nebraska 2nd by 2.5%. However, on Election Day Hillary was projected to win by 5.3% in Wisconsin and 3.7% in Pennsylvania. She instead lost both states by less than a percentage point. The rest are within about 1% or less. And while Ohio is a virtual tie at the moment, Trump was suspected to win Ohio by less than 2% in 2016 and instead won by over 8%. North Carolina polls give a very slight edge to Biden, but historically it would be very surprising to see Biden win the state. Maine's 2nd District is a coin toss. Florida is the biggest wild card in this group. Not only does it have the largest number of electoral votes at 29, but polling has been very close all year.
For Biden to win here are the basic scenarios:
If Biden wins Florida, he wins.
If Biden wins Pennsylvania + Nebraska 2nd District + Maine 2nd District, he wins.
If Biden wins Pennsylvania + any one state out of Wisconsin, Arizona, North Carolina, or Ohio, he wins.
If Biden wins North Carolina and either Wisconsin or Arizona, he wins.
If Biden wins Ohio and either Wisconsin or Arizona, he wins.
If Biden wins Wisconsin, Arizona, and either 2nd district, he wins.
Another very interesting fact - When comparing Sept 24, 2016 to Sept 24, 2020, Biden is out-performing Hillary in ALL EIGHTEEN LOCATIONS. Every single one.
This analysis is obviously subject to change as we get closer to Nov 3rd. Also, if Trump refuses to leave office and we have another civil war, none of this will matter. But I might update it every few weeks just for fun.
What’s your logic for giving Michigan to Biden? Aren’t projections there off in 2016?
Projections were off by about 4% in 2016, which is significant sure. But with the exception of one Trafalgar poll (whom I don’t put much stock in), Biden has been solidly polling ahead by 7% in Michigan. If you consider margin of error and that 4% from 2016, then I guess you could argue that Michigan is one of the riskier battlegrounds.
I plan to update this at the end of the week. Based on the trends for the week, I’m going to possibly move some locations around. Wisconsin has been improving, so maybe those two flip flop. But Michigan is 16 votes and Wisconsin is 10, so let’s hope not