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I'm curious to see how he votes on things though. He is still against the Employees' Free Choice Act, so its not like the Dems will pass through everything they want.
There's been a public campaign to convince him to switch, so I'm not surprised to learn that there had been private pressings as well. It can't help that the Republicans were looking for someone to run to the right of him in a 2010 primary.
I'm probably going to catch hell for this, but I'll say it anyway... I hope McCain is next.
Post by nitetimeritetime on Apr 28, 2009 16:57:46 GMT -5
Really? I don't see why McCain would switch parties now, or why it would be good for Dems if he did. Since McCain-Feingold in 02, he hasn't done anything remotely mavericky, has he?
Post by noeysasquatch on Apr 28, 2009 17:05:01 GMT -5
I had figured that this is something Specter would eventually do before campaigning for reelection in 2010. If he remained as a Republican it would've been tough for him to win the republican primary being moderate and most likely haveing to run against a more conservative republican.
Really? I don't see why McCain would switch parties now, or why it would be good for Dems if he did. Since McCain-Feingold in 02, he hasn't done anything remotely mavericky, has he?
Why would you think he would switch, kdogg?
Because he nearly switched back in 01, but Jeffords beat him to the punch.
That, and Mac doesn't really have too much more to lose, does he?
Post by nitetimeritetime on Apr 28, 2009 17:54:00 GMT -5
I suspected then (and now) that his 01 threat to switch parties had a lot to do with the way the Bush campaign team (i.e. Rove) trashed his name during the 99 campaign. Since 02, and definitely since 04, he has moved far to the right of where he was after the 2000 campaign, at least from what I can tell. Look at his voting record for the last few years, and the positions he took during the last campaign.
I'm not sure what he'd have to lose, but the way he's voted for the last 6-8 years, I don't see why the Dems would want him.
I think Specter & McCain are under some similar circumstances.
Both Senators in office for decades. Both had their failed presidential runs, though Mac fared far better on his second try. Both are running for re-election in 2010, for what will probably be each of their last terms. They've both got primary challengers lined up, running to the right of them. At least Specter did, until today...
McCain was obviously sore about what happened with Rove's W campaign. He held a grudge against them, yes, but he still had his eye on 2008. I don't think his tack to the right was entirely on principles - opportunism also had a hand. And you know McCain isn't exactly shitting rainbows with glee over the last election, either.
I wouldn't be surprised to see McCain jump the GOP ship. That's not entirely the same thing as jumping on with the Dems, but that's the point.
I think this is more significant as the center departing the GOP, rather than anyone gravitating towards Democrats.
Post by wonderllama on Apr 28, 2009 18:29:32 GMT -5
If anyone else were to switch over, it would be Olympia Snowe of ME. Her voting record is comparable to Specter's and she'd probably fit in well with the Blue Dogs.
From what I know of Specter, I like him and it's good to have him on the Dems side. I always like people who vote based on what they see as good policy rather than strictly towing the party line, and I expect Specter to continue that. Also, he's been working with Jim Webb on a very good prison reform bill that I'm hoping will make it through. As far as the EFCA goes, the Dems already have opposition in their ranks from Lincoln, Pryor and some other southern senators (Arkansas voters would not tolerate a yes vote on EFCA), and they knew Specter was gonna be a reach. I can't see them standing in the way of cloture, but don't expect any of those senators to actually vote for the bill.
Now if we can just get Franken in his rightful seat in DC...
Post by nitetimeritetime on Apr 28, 2009 18:30:07 GMT -5
True, I suspect he didn't get the running mate he actually wanted either (Lieberman).
What's up with seniority for Specter? I know that was a big deal when Lieberman went fake independent, that he got to keep his seniority in various committees b/c Reid needed to placate him. Will Arlen lose the senior positions he holds because of this?
edit: this is in response to kdogg, but I agree with everything you said, too, wonderllama.
Specter will get to maintain his seniority as if he'd been a Democrat the entire time, but I don't know what's going to become of his committee assignments.
Harry Reid placates everybody, too. He's such a quacking wuss. I hope he gets ousted from his leadership position after midterms.
I think this switch just made the Republicans a lot more likely to pursue the Franken litigation as far (and as long) as they possibly can. Ugh.
Post by nitetimeritetime on Apr 28, 2009 18:58:42 GMT -5
That makes sense. I'd think the Dems would do what they can to help Specter's transition.
And yes, Reid is a wuss, but given the tenuous hold they had on the majority, I think the Lieberman thing makes some sense. But yeah, I hope he's gone as leader soon.
And I suspect you're right about the Franken situation, unfortunately. Sigh.
I'm not terribly shocked by it (I live in TX but spent the first 20 years of my life in Scranton, PA)....I'm pretty sure it's going to help his re-election bid....that's in 2010, right?
I say good for him...I'm glad he made the switch.
Last Edit: Apr 28, 2009 19:41:52 GMT -5 by hopz - Back to Top
Specter is up for re-election in 2010... against the same opponent that nearly defeated him for that seat in the 2004 primary. As he said himself at the press conference, he didn't want his Senate career to be in the hands of the Pennsylvania Republican primary electorate. It can't help Specter's situation that Pennsylvania party registration in recent years has decisively tilted in Democrats' favor. I guess Pennsylvania in general likes him more than Pennsylvania Republicans in specific. Some of you might know that better than I.
So a big part of this switch is survivalism, a CYA move on Specter's part. I don't really think that many Specter votes will go down differently now that he's switched parties.
2010 probably won't be too friendly to incumbent Republican Senators facing re-election. Republican Senators who won in 2004 - when the GOP gained a handful of seats - did so partly because they were riding W's coat-tails. That certainly won't be a factor in 2010, probably to the detriment of some GOP incumbents.
Semi-related note... I was watching Countdown last night and Olbermann had Chris Matthews on to talk about it. He sounded pretty pissed-off about the whole situation. Wasn't he rumored to be jumping into that race on the Democratic side?
Post by wonderllama on Apr 29, 2009 18:41:49 GMT -5
I'm enjoying the response to this from the hard right of the Republican party. They're saying take Snowe, Collins, McCain and his daughter too. They want to kick out the moderates when there's been a massive shift in voter party ID from Rep to Dem or Ind in the last election. The Republican party is really doing a good job of isolating itself from the majority of the population.
I don't think Specter's voting record will change much (he's voted a majority of the time along Dem party lines this session anyway). It just comforts me a little more that there's less of a chance he'll actively block something from the Dem side that he disagrees with for cloture or something. His vote really isn't needed for final passage of anything.
This is a good move for Specter himself and the Democratic party. His primary challenge was from the right, and most of the moderate Republicans in PA switched parties for the last election leaving the hardliners left to vote him out. But with PA going pretty strong for Obama, and with the backing of the Prez and the other Dems, he should fare well against the Republican nominee in 2010. Also, the Democrats can start to claim the "big tent" philosiphy that got Regan all his followers by including moderates and those that don't vote straight party line.
Post by noeysasquatch on Apr 29, 2009 20:46:32 GMT -5
Following this great PA theme:
Medical marijuana legislation has been introduced to Pennsylvania! Philly Rep. Cohen has just introduced a bill that would allow patients to purchase marijuana with a doctors recommendation.
Specter will get to maintain his seniority as if he'd been a Democrat the entire time, but I don't know what's going to become of his committee assignments.
Harry Reid placates everybody, too. He's such a quacking wuss. I hope he gets ousted from his leadership position after midterms.
So apparently if I'm understanding the news today, the deal Reid made is that for now Specter keeps seniority, and keeps committee seats, but he can't chair any committees. Then if he's re-elected in 2010, he keeps everything, as if he'd been a Dem all along. This makes it likely that some senior Dem(s) will get passed for a chair position they thought they were next in line for.
I have to say, this is a terrible deal for the Democrats. Specter was going to have a tough time getting the Republican nomination in 2010, and if he didn't, his right-wing opponent would have been slaughtered in the general. Even Specter, had he won the nomination, would have faced a tough battle against a Democrat in this increasingly blue state. So if the Democrats hadn't made this gamble by recruiting Specter, they could have had this seat go to an actual Democrat, not one who votes with the Republicans 65% of the time (admittedly, this figure will likely go down now). Instead, they are stuck with a Democrat In Name Only for the next eight years. The only benefit is it makes the Republicans look bad in the short term, and it might help slightly in getting Obama's agenda passed, also only in the short term.
I think it will work to the administration's advantage in the short term, though, and that's probably for the better. Presidents have to hit the ground running after an election, and having Specter on the administration's side will definitely be helpful in the short term.
Sure, the Republicans were looking to purge Specter from their ranks... but that doesn't mean Specter's safe as a Democrat, either.
He's irked the GOP enough that he had to make this self-preservation switch in the first place. He can't go back to them.
Nor is he completely safe as a Democrat, either. They've pretty much got him by the balls until if/when he wins re-election as a Democrat. We know a situation like this comes with wheeling and dealing. I'm pretty sure that in this situation, some strings had to be pulled with Pennsylvania Democrats. Specter had to have received some kind of assurance from the administration that the Pennsylvania Democratic establishment wouldn't actively field a primary opponent against him. Obama has pledged his help in fundraising/campaigning for Specter 2010.
I'm sure whatever arrangements were made are not set in stone. Specter's still going to have the threat of a Democratic primary challenge hanging over his head if he falls too far out of line with the administration's wishes.
He's going to be 80 when the midterms occur, so it's highly likely that would be his final term. He might have more freedom after midterms, but his career might run out before the term for which he's seeking re-election. If he knows he's not going to be around forever, it's probably a good move on his part - increasing his effectiveness knowing his time's running short.
I believe the deal is that Specter's seniority as a Democrat won't be recognized until after he's won election as a Democrat. Rumor has it that after midterms, Specter wants to leapfrog Iowa's Tom Harkin for chairmanship of Appropriations' Labor subcommittee.
I watched a documentary on Iowa corn farmers the other day. Do you grow corn? I hope so. Corn is good. ;D
Was it called King Corn? If so that is a really cool movie.
as a matter of fact it was! I just love documentaries. I just rented one called young @ heart which is about a group of senior citizens that are members in a rock band. I can't wait to watch it!
