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Also, what do you make of Kiko being the kill? Random? Trying to throw us off? Player least likely to go with the program?
Home now. I think Kiko was just a hit to keep the players in the game and eliminate the non-controversial. By having an obvious Mafia out there in either Roo or Hakuna it will remain to be determined who the cohort is. I think that nobody was considering Kiko so it eliminates an inert element.
That leaves a hellfire of debate over who the partner to the Fake Inspector is and leaves you me and Viking to figure it out. I hope to hell Hakuna isn't already gone for the weekend and leaving us hanging about his guess. That makes me wonder if Hakuna is just pulling the "I'm unavailable" ploy to see what transpires while the town waits on his post.
We really need to figure out this round who was lying. We already lost Jimmyroo who was almost certainly a Townie and we lost Kiko who obviously was. The almost certain reality is that there are two Mafia left and only three Townies. If we choose a Townie by mistake this round the game is over. My feeling is that Viking was the most ardent supporter of pushing Jimmyroo off the cliff. Even Roonectar seemed to push for LLL despite Vikings machinations. Hakuna being conveniently absent makes me very wary. LLL? Thoughts? No need to ask for yours Viking.
Looking back over the game, Hakuna has been absent the whole time. Much like Mike was as Inspector last game. By the way, he had my name that game and I was Mafia. Viking will give me some statistical info on this, but honestly, if I am unlucky enough to be Mafia two games in a row, and Inspector has my name both times, I should probably not drive home today cause my luck is Quacked.
The second thing I always try to look for are disassociating votes. In other words, people who vote for one another, and then change to someone else. Roo voted for Jimmy, Jimmy voted for Roo and then they took their votes off of one another and split. They then both rallied hard on me, and ended up voting for me in the second run-off. Jimmy didn't have much choice there, but Roo briefly entertained NOT doing so, which seems like further disassociation. I don't think that it is Mafia 101 in this shortened game to keep around the Mafia name that you have and let the Townie die. I think that as Inspector Roo should have voted for me and not even entertained the idea of voting for Jimmy. Unless maybe it was another disassociation tactic.
I admit that the jimmyroo/roonectar jump on me in the beginning may have my thought process skewed here, as well as their immediate effort to say that Hakuna was lying about not being Inspector before. But that is where I am leaning. Also, Jimmy was pretty put off by Kiko not voting with him. So I don't know if maybe they thought that Kiko was suspicious of them and couldn't be swayed or what. But then why not kill Viking, as he is more experienced and seemed pretty intent on Roo being a possible fake inspector. Why not get rid of Viking?
Quacker, I'm going to be honest, your vote for Roo first round, and then switch to me also still sticks out to me. And, like I said, Viking's subtle steering.
If I had to list in order who I think may be Mafia with Roo, it is 1)Jimmyroo 2)Quacker 3) Viking
But it seems like Jimmyroo as Mafia and us getting lucky doesn't make sense to anyone else, so I'm probably wrong here.
Viking you will end up being the swing vote here. I am going with Roo and even though he has voted LLL and I have voted Hakuna we will eventually settle on one or the other. I am a Townie and I believe that Roo is too. If we were Mafia together I would think that we would have settled on the same person offline by now. I can only do that in the thread bc I'm a Townie. I am not in cahoots with him so I can only assume he is telling the truth or you are in cahoots with him. If that's the case congrats on the win.
Quacker, can you explain why you think too is a townie? I am having trouble seeing it.
Obviously either Hakuna or Roo is Mafia. And I don't think that either of them is going to come up with this kind of ruse on their own regardless of which one it is. I totally discount the idea that Roo and Jimmyroo were Mafia for that reason. That leaves an experienced player in cahoots with whichever one it is. My gut tells me that Roo would not come out until he was forced to because of Hakuna coming out as Fake Inspector. He wanted to nail it down and be a hero. It also seems genuine to me that he was surprised at how difficult it would be to come out as Inspector. I know I look forward and dread the first game I'm Inspector because I expect all the shiz that comes with it. It seems to me that he expected all the Townies to carry him off on their shoulders and vanquish the Mafia. It could be an act but if it is he did a damn good job.
The icing on the cake for me is the way Hakuna has hid the entire game. He has been absent far too long for anything other than a stint in Afghanistan to account for his absence. That is such a convenience for a player not to continually respond to tough questions about what they were thinking and why they did what they did when you're faking it.
That's why I say congratulations to you and Roo if he is the one faking it. I know he's not faking it with me and since he named LLL I can surmise it is not her. It's not out of the realm of possibility but it seems highly unlikely.
There's my reasoning. If you're a Townie for real and you think it over then you should be voting with me. I think you can tell when I'm speaking from the heart and I am. I think if you take the time to consider this vote without suspicion of me as Mafia you can come to the same conclusion.
I want to see what hakuna has to say before we decide if too gets lynched. I am going to reread the whole thread a few times prior to voting.
Mike, I have a friend in today thru tonight so I may not be able to vote prior to your deadline. I had hoped hakuna would have posted by now and I could do all of this now, but he has not.
I want to see what hakuna has to say before we decide if too gets lynched. I am going to reread the whole thread a few times prior to voting.
Mike, I have a friend in today thru tonight so I may not be able to vote prior to your deadline. I had hoped hakuna would have posted by now and I could do all of this now, but he has not.
I had hoped Hakuna would have posted by now too. I am open to being swayed to change my vote but he is doing no swaying. And that fact is weighing heavily on my vote.
BTW just to keep the voting even between the sides while we wait for Hakuna to respond:
Post by hakunaMATTata on Nov 19, 2012 12:39:08 GMT -5
Apologies again. My guess was Quacker and I was told he is a Townie. I guessed him basically only because one game I played with him I was convinced he was a Townie and he was Mafia, another I was convinced he was Mafia and he was a townie.
As for my vote Hakuna >> roo
No need to try and snuff out the other mafia, assuming it wasn't jimmy. If it was jimmy, we win. If not we know it's Viking or LLL and we get a good ol' 3 person final day standoff.
Post by hakunaMATTata on Nov 19, 2012 12:43:50 GMT -5
Also I know it's convenient for me to come out and say I guessed Quacker, after he voted for me. So I'm sure that is going to be spun on me, but it is what it is and there's nothing I can do about it.
Post by LoveLuckLaughter on Nov 19, 2012 13:50:22 GMT -5
Jeezus Hakuna. I hope you had fun but damn that was a pain in the ass wait.
Obviously my vote will stay. But thinking ahead, I am obviously wrong with the Quacker thought process. So either it ends tonight with us winning if we vote off Roo, or another round comes and then the choice is easily Viking.
While it is "nice" to be cleared by an Inspector guess I still am not convinced that Hakuna isn't faking it. If I were Hakuna/LLL plotting to pull this off I would have chosen me as the "guess". Me switching over to vote for Roo would then end the game once they bumped off Viking or me. This vote is going to end up being a gut decision but then aren't they all.
Viking if you're a Townie and you believe Hakuna then you have to assume that Roo and Jimmyroo were the Mafia or Roo and LLL were Mafia. Do those scenarios really seem likely? If Hakuna is really telling the truth I would lean towards it being Roo/LLL if you really are a Townie. If we vote off Roo and the game doesn't end I'm going to have a hell of a decision on my hands as to which of you two are Mafia with him.
I'm sticking with my vote for LLL until I hear from you and get more input frm others.
Post by LoveLuckLaughter on Nov 19, 2012 17:55:02 GMT -5
Actually i would have "cleared" and buddied up with the player most likely to side with me so that I could keep him in the game as long as possible in case things went awry. Seems to be the Mafia strategy that works best. Demonize the ones you can easily paint up as Mafia, buddy up to the ones who will vote your way. "Mafia 101". But hey, what do I know.
Actually i would have "cleared" and buddied up with the player most likely to side with me so that I could keep him in the game as long as possible in case things went awry. Seems to be the Mafia strategy that works best. Demonize the ones you can easily paint up as Mafia, buddy up to the ones who will vote your way. "Mafia 101". But hey, what do I know.
There is no awry with a wrong move in this game. There is only aw-shiz.
I got family in and staying at my place, I won't be on constantly but will do my best to keep an eye on things. I will allow a brief amount of time for discussion after any Furthur votes, but will keep things rolling. I will consider Tuesday at noon Bonnaroo time as the deadline for the 36 hour rule for voting.
Roo. You are 100% Mafia. If we don't vote you off Eventually we will lose. Period.
Lies on lies on lies. Quacker and Viking I think I'm predictable enough in this game to not try something like fake inspector. I have wanted to be inspector for a very long time. I have probably done a terrible job but I have gotten both mafia in the open. It's your job to decide all I can do is point them out.
Roo. You are 100% Mafia. If we don't vote you off Eventually we will lose. Period.
Lies on lies on lies. Quacker and Viking I think I'm predictable enough in this game to not try something like fake inspector. I have wanted to be inspector for a very long time. I have probably done a terrible job but I have gotten both mafia in the open. It's your job to decide all I can do is point them out.
Roo, I'm with you on this one and keeping my vote where it is. As I said Viking will be the swing vote. The fate of the game rests with him.
I have never been wrong on roonectar's role since he started playing, and my gut is telling me the mafia were Jimmyroo and Roonectar. Quacker et al., I am a townie. I have been really torn over this, and have read the entire thread several times. I took out all of Hakuna's posts and Roo's posts and read those seperate. Then I took out all of LLLs posts and Jimmyroo's posts and read those, and then read the thread over again, and I really feel like roonectar is the fake.
If I am wrong and Hakuna pulled a fake, well, then we lose. Hakuna's game play would normally bother me, but I took a look at some of his posts prior to this game in other threads, and it seems like something truly is going on in his life. I know that is a perfect mafia cover, and I was fooled before when LD pulled this on me in Mafia 48, but it rings true to me. Much more so than roonectar.
Prior to the 1st runoff, my short list was Roonectar, Jimmyroo, and Quacker. After looking through a few times, I am now pretty confident that Quacker is not mafia. That leaves either an LLL and Hakuna combo or Roonectar and Jimmyroo. Kiko was obviously not mafia either. So, reading through the game with the lens of Quacker, Myself and Kiko as townies, the mafia becomes much more clearly roo/roo. Quacker sided with them on his voting, and I had tried to take a more neutral tact. Kiko was the only one that showed no sign of really changing, so they took him out. Also, killing Kiko was a novice mafia whack. If I was mafia, I would have whacked either LLL or Quacker, especially if we had a decent fake going. Remember, the standard mafia rule is inspcetor first, experience second.
All of this adds up to a roo / roo mafia. Quacker, I know we are on opposite sides of this one, but as I said, I think you are a townie with me. At the start of this round, we were the only two not involved in the inspector triangle. Even if we toss out Hakuna guessing you, reading through it, I would say you are a townie. I hope you can trust that I have no intention of killing the town in this game, even if you and I disagree.
Post by LoveLuckLaughter on Nov 20, 2012 10:24:05 GMT -5
See I have the benefit of being assured you are not the Inspector because you came out with my name. Very opportunisticly. But if you had come out with Quackers name after Viking and myself, two experienced players, asked you to come out with your name, and you didn't despite being very active in the game, until the real Inspector came out....I still would think that you are the fake. You were over the top, you lied about stuff to try to prove your points. All of things add up to fake inspector in my eyes. When I look at voting it all makes sense. When I look at the setup it all makes sense. When I look at timing it all makes sense.
Looking objectively at it, pretending that I am not the one being targeted, I still see it that way. A Roo/jimmyroo or Roo/Viking allegiance based on everything that has happened in the game makes the most sense no matter how I cut it. If I try to make it more complicated than it really is, then I could see a Roo/LLL Avant-garde situation, or a Hakuna/LLL two Quackin stooges clusterquack. But everything that makes sense points to Roo/Jimmyroo or Roo/Viking. I realize Mafia doesn't always make sense but the reality is that for the most part human behavior is fairly predictable, and Mafia follows a sort of structure. I use this approach each game, and I do a pretty good job of figuring out mafia. Viking uses a pretty set approach each game, and can usually figure out 2/3 Mafia in the first round. SFA uses a set a approach and figures Mafia out quickly. Quacker does a nice job too, but I feel he still carries an LLL bias, so I know that most games I am at the top of his suspect list. Which is why I kill him off right away when I am Mafia.
Aside from my initial feelings and short list, there is a smoking gun on the top of page 6. If you read over the exchange right after Hakuna came out, it is pretty damning, but the most damning piece to it is this post right here:
For the record, Hakuna is lying and was inspector 2 games ago. This is a 100% lie from Hakuna that it's his first time being inspector. I remember very vividly that he was inspector because he came out and gave all the names he guessed and then me and Kiko still quacked up the game and lost.
Kiko, some backup? Or really, all it takes is for someone to look back maybe 2-3 games and see for yourselves!
Hakunah is not inspector!!
Jimmyroo coming on and immediately saying Hakuna is lying is not necessarily a townie move. He was stuck in a 2 person runoff at that point, so obviously he will try to survive, but as a townie, there is no way he could know if Hakuna was faking or not since Hakuna said he had roo's name and was guessing Jimmyroo based on voting patterns. Instead, he acts like he has inside (mafia) knowledge, and immediately declares Hakuna a liar. A townie (or at least me) would step back and not immediately declare Hakuna a liar and roo the real inspector. I would pick apart how we got to this point, and why I was linked int he first place. then try to sort out who else it was. Jimmyroo never once took a step back from siding with roonectar.
Really, at this point, I think we have some fairly damning evidence.
Look would I be so sure if I was lying. Viking I almost always come after you. I haven't at all. LLL was my given name. I have been on her the ENTIRE game even though it has made me the #1 target. I said I was guessing hakunah and he was mafia if it was going to damn me then someone should have spoken up I was up for suggestions. This is just like watching a car crash the way mafia have mind fu€ked you this game Viking. We will lose this game because of your vote
Roonectar, if we lose this game, then so be it, but I trust my instincts, both in this game and in life. Everything in this thread points toward you. At this point, I am not going to change my vote. If you are inspector and I am wrong, then well played on the mafia's part, since they would have laid a nearly perfect trail to fool me. It would have been much better if you had come out earlier when I said you should but if you are inspector, you chose not to. I know you wanted a guess, but this game is different. As I said earlier, it is essentially day 3 and we had no info. So in essence, you are just as much to blame as I am if we lose.
But I do not think we are going to lose. I think you and jimmyroo are our mafia and I think we are about to win the game.
