So Random is now dead. That just leaves truth and lies from the Logic Puzzle.
I want to apologize to the townies in advance if I get this wrong. It is the second major error for me this game. Essentially, I had it narrowed to Kiko, roo, MC, and Hakuna in round 2 prior to SFA coming out, and instead of doing the smart thing and voting one of them off last round, I went with Jimmy and killed LD, since he made a fairly compelling case, and LD was not himself. Sorry LD.
I am really torn on this vote here. Roo, I have said before that staying silent to survive does not help me when I try to figure out what you are. I know you just said you would vote for me always, but seriously, when you have spoken up, who has defended you in the past? I really have no idea if you are a townie or not this game, since you stayed quiet until Day 4 when 2 mafia were already outed. That said, I am not convinced you are mafia either.
Kiko, I have no frame of reference, so i have no idea. You were right on Phi, but I don't know if you were just distancing from MC and Hakuna or if you really thought he was innocent when you had no way of knowing. It is always tough with new players, and you have switched up a few times, making it more confusing.
I am leaning one way right now, but would like to hear what Kiko has to say before I vote. As I said earlier, I am really torn on this one, but I think I know who I am going to vote for.
Post by kikosanchez on Aug 24, 2012 22:07:46 GMT -5
Again, with NoAge and Jimmy being the last 2 I really trusted, why would I as mafia kill them off? Oddly they both got killed off and are tied to me with voting and Jimmy even said he trusted me last round. Actually, he said he trusted both Viking and I. Idk if I believe mafia would try to outlevel the remaining town by killing off a person that trusted them. In other words, if either I or Viking were mafia, we would have likely just kept Jimmy and killed Roo at the end. It could be a double back by Viking, but numbers seem stronger than trying to trick someone with 3 left. I will go with my friend Occam here.
Post by kikosanchez on Aug 24, 2012 22:28:50 GMT -5
Ok, he actually said he was suspicious of LD and Viking first and myself 3rd. He had reservations on either of us being mafia though. He thought Roo was quite trustworthy because he put himself into a runoff voluntarily. Now I'm not sure why Roo would kill Jimmy if Jimmy trusted him most out of the 3 of us after his final analysis. Either of you care to expound on the Jimmy kill?
OK...I just went through the entire game. It took me an hour. I kept a summary of noteworthy events in chronological order that I will post shortly. I'll let y'all read it for yourselves and then decide.
For me, Viking and LD were by far the most suspicious players that still remain for a large portion of the review...with kiko coming in at 3rd place. Roonectar volunteered to go into the runoff this round with presumably no other mafia to help him, so that makes me worry less about him.
But as I got deeper, I noticed that Viking called out MC and Hakuna either directly or indirectly WAY too many times to be associated with them. It wasn't distancing. He was calling them out. So I'm pretty confident that Viking is a townie too.
That leaves LD and Kiko. I find them both very suspicious, but two things make me want to vote for LD. First, Hakuna tying himself to Kiko right after SFA came out as inspector makes no sense. It seems like a diversion to get people to vote for kiko since he's caused a lot of raucous and is an easier vote. Second, I have simply been suspicious of LD ALL GAME and there have been some points where I felt like me and Kiko are on the same level in trying to seek out mafia.
Jimmyroo >> LD
Kiko, you misquoted Jimmyroo a bit. The full quote is above. As you can see, the part you brought up was that he thought LD and I were the most suspicious all game UNTIL he went back and read the thread over. Once he read the thread over, he found you and LD to be the most suspicious. This post and his next post were what convinced me to vote LD, despite my misgivings on his status as mafia.
With regards to his whack, if I was mafia, why would I whack the 1 person who actually took the time to read the thread and said I was probably a townie? That would make no sense, especially since I have voted for roo in rounds 1,2, and 4. Also, you and I have not exactly agreed the entire game. Add to that the fact the whack came so close to the day's close, the mafia ensured Jimmyroo had no chance for last words over night.
I said in my earlier post I was leaning, and I was leaning towards you at the time. Now, I do not know if you just read the first half of what he said, or if it was intentionally designed to twist it, but this is why I always want to see what people have to say prior to voting.
I feel more comfortable voting for Kiko now (Although I still have serious misgivings). Roo, I swear, if you are mafia, this is the last time I ever step out on a limb for you, and will vote for you straight out until you participate and prove you are a townie. No more of this survival crap. But you volunteering to go in the runoff, tipped the scales, and I am going to give you the benefit of the doubt.
Sorry, I hit the post button on accident before it was finished. It should have read:
Well played for your first game. As I said, I am still leery about voting for you, but much more comfortable than voting for roo. I am not completely locked. I want to sleep on it, and see what roo has to say, but I am ok with placing my vote at this point.
Post by kikosanchez on Aug 24, 2012 23:37:53 GMT -5
Well I may have not read Jimmy's post the right way. I didn't put enough emphasis on "But as I got deeper". So that means he ended up trusting Roo the most, you 2nd, and myself last. Well this is quite shizzy for me tbh. It also adds to why Roo wouldn't have voted him off (assuming he read that).
All I can say is one of you is getting played, honestly I don't know which one though. Whoever is mafia is obviously playing at a fairly secondary level. Either viking threw out all those "call outs" against Hakuna and MC as cover in case he ended up last mafia or Roo volunteered himself as to show supreme confidence. Honestly I don't know enough history of mafia on here to know who plays like this more and who plays more straightforward.
This is quite simple, whoever is town, switch your vote right now and I guarantee victory. If I am lying, I will quit inforoo forever. Tomorrow if it says the town killed ___ and the mafia wins, you will never see me here ever again (assuming my partner isn't mafia of course). But this won't happen, it will say town won (assuming town switched). I absolutely guarantee I will delete my account and never return again to ever post on what is my vacation of the entire year, Bonnaroo, ever again.
Since I am equally confused, I will just say whoever switches at least gives town 50% chance, right now it is 0%.
And fwiw, Viking, I've played quite a poor game. I was far too confident early on and made a lot of mistakes. But that is fine, I've learned some lessons. Is "well played for a first game" supposed to mean "I figured you out noobie"? trying to sound like you've figured it all out to Roo?
I would love to see each of you say if you are lying you will quit inforoo forever. One of you either won't post it, will rescind on it, or will never be on here ever again. I've already laid my claim and you can ask my gambling friends, I always hold my end of the bet. Fortunately, I won't be the one paying up on this one.
Post by kikosanchez on Aug 24, 2012 23:54:25 GMT -5
One last thing, Roo on day 4 you voted for me then said you'd go back and reread the thread and give thoughts, which you never did. Could you please give a more elaborate post on your thought process? I believe Viking and I have done our part.
Overconfidence is Round one is a common new player trait. I had that issue myself in the first game, and actually, that is how I got in the habit of voting SFA and then moving off of him. It is good luck, but also a reminder to not get too tied to one theory. I actually meant the comment as a compliment if you are the mafia member for lasting this long. It has nothing to do with roo.
Do I think I am right here, yes. I am sure I am right? No. There is not way to be sure unless you are mafia. Also, as a tip, the bet is a mafia tradition. I think the best one so far was LLL offering to go topless and kiss all the players if she was wrong in my first game. Roo I believe still owes 1000 beers to people, and I do as well.
With that in mind, if one of us now switches, we fall into the trap. It is why I mentioned the logic puzzle to start Day 4. Here is the simple version we are left with on Day 5:
As you said, you have essentially built a prisoner's dilemma. So now, if I switch, roo will make a bet as well. Add to that, you didn't vote, and you essentially are saying I pick whoever still wants to kill me, in effect buying a vote to remain on the winning side.
At this point, I would love to hear from roo as well, but for now, I want to leave my vote where it is.
*modified to fix the clip. I am watching that movie tonight, so I had to include it!
Post by kikosanchez on Aug 25, 2012 0:51:51 GMT -5
Yes, I openly admitted I created a tripwire for someone, because it becomes 50/50 for me, which is as good as it will get for me at this point.
It quite sucks if that is mafia tradition. But while 1,000 beers or going topless are quite unattainable or unverifiable, erasing my account is neither. I'm also curious as to how often those people were town or mafia. Once again, will anyone accept the offer of deleting their account given they are lying? I am more than happy to make this pact because I am not lying, I am simply town.
Anyway, if you are town and re-read my long post above you will see an easter egg that will show my "townness". I'll let this go for the night as well. Whoever is town, please reTHINK your position. I have been clear and open this entire thread, even going so far as to point out to Jimmy that his chronology was incorrect and just up above correcting myself (twice) just to hope and get everything out in the open so townies can see things more clearly.
"With that in mind, if one of us now switches, we fall into the trap"
Yup, either a righteous trap or an evil one. Are you talking a lot to make sure roo doesn't switch or are you talking to solidify your position? I'm glad you are at least talking this game, though. I'm honestly not sure, but I'd love to hear more from Roo.
Please townie, recognize a fellow member...I've laid my account on the line for your trust. Not some absurd thing, just my account.
It is a roughly 50/50% split townie / mafia. And I think the last time someone bet there account, they were mafia (Somewhere in the low 40's game).
The problem for me is that you admit to trying to trap us, when I know I am, and I think roo may be a townie. You even went as far as asking for the kill vote by asking one of us, does not matter which, into a trap.
To answer your question, I always talk through what I am thinking. It makes it easier for people to know what I am, and helps solidify my position. Obviously, if roo takes your bait, I believe the townies will lose. The exception would be if roo is mafia and you are a townie.
At this point, what makes me most uncomfortable with switching is that if you really were a townie, you would have an opinion on who you think is mafia and vote for that person, instead of voting with whoever you convince to switch to you. It makes me more uncomfortable than roo not talking, because he came out and took a position instead of trying to get power.
As I read it over this morning, that is what struck me the most.
Post by kikosanchez on Aug 25, 2012 8:48:43 GMT -5
I never tried to "get power" until I had two votes on me. Yes, I am OPENLY admitting that I need someone to switch their vote. You keep calling it a "trap" it is only a trap if it is mafia. I am just trying to get one of you to switch, so we at least have a chance. I ALREADY have tried to analyze it and I'm left unsure, so that is why I'm just wanting town to come out and save us. I honestly think there are equal parts going against and for each of you. But below I am giving town a tool to show who is and isn't town.
the easter egg. Viking didn't mention it. ROO do you see it?? Please town, look at the 8th post on this game, my first long one. Your answer is in it.
I didnt mention it, because I didn't find it. As for calling what you are doing a trap, you have to realize that from my position, it looks like one, since I think it is likely you are mafia. However, in the interest of hearing what you have to say aside from just getting someone to vote with you at this point,
Viking >> Null
Not saying I am going to believe you, but I will give you the shot to explain a theory beyond someone believe me. I have to run out until this afternoon, but will check on my phone.
Post by kikosanchez on Aug 25, 2012 9:17:59 GMT -5
As I said above, I don't have a great analysis, but nor do either of you. As stated before, Roonectar voted me flat out in day 4 and then said he'd go back, read, and come back with more, which he never did. He again voted me flat out again in this round with no real substance behind it. You have at least written some things out, but it still doesn't seem clear to you either when it comes to Roo and I.
My argument against Roo would be that SFA, the inspector, was wary of him and he's been quiet. Also, given you are not mafia, he balanced the first round votes along with Hak and MC. On the other side, he volunteered himself into a runoff on day 4 which Jimmy thought was quite telling of him being town, you also said he's done that before and he was town.
My argument against you is that SFA, the inspector, was wary of you as well. You've been quite talkative, which I at least enjoy, but you have also been extremely without confidence, ie never getting tied to anyone and always offering reservations on your votes. This is a wonderful town AND mafia strategy. Most any mafia strategy includes staying in the middle and never being overconfident or leading a vote toward or against someone. I honestly don't know if you're playing town or mafia well. On the other hand, you've called out mafia more than once.
So, in the end, either you or Roo made a nice play or two to make it seem you can't be mafia and whoever is mafia I will say is playing it quite well. Either Roo has played it the same as Hak and MC and is quiet or Viking you are being more talkative while keeping neutral in every way. This is why I can't come up with a convincing argument either way.
I would love to hear from Roo really. I' like to see if he sees the easter egg. If neither of you admit to seeing it, I will post it clearly, though that will give away the town's tool from my pov.
Post by kikosanchez on Aug 25, 2012 10:21:28 GMT -5
One thing I forgot in my defense was the last round. It was Roo 2, Me 2, LD 1. Roo in fact voted for me outright that round too and even noted his suspicion of me. I had the deciding vote and all I had to do was chop Roo and guarantee my survival. I didn't like it much because I didn't feel there was much evidence against Roo, so I laid off the vote and let you everyone decide and think on it some more. How could I, as mafia, ever pass up a sure thing like that? There are such things as meta-game, but they really never override a sure play to survive. This, along with my admittedly outspoken defense of Phi, and clearing up Jimmy's chronological mistake, hopefully prove to whoever is town that I have gone out of my way and put myself "out there" and in harm's way this game to try and do what's best for town (even if I've been wrong some of the times).
If this isn't convincing to you town, surely the easter egg is the nail in the coffin. It's really the last tool I have to save town, but it is surely a 100% lock.
Just curious how you both have found me to be neutral. In day 1, accusing Phi (and being wrong) got me tossed in the runoff and almost killed. This tends to make one a bit gunshy once the inspector comes out and proves them wrong.
In day two, prior to SFA coming out, I said it was between you two, MC, and Hakuna, which put a giant target on my back the rest of the game. Then after SFA came out and said he thought I was suspicious, I stated I will be more reserved for the rest of the game, which I have been. Even after SFA said he no longer thought I was guilty, I continued to be reserved to our detriment.
As I admitted at the beginning of this round, I should not have let Jimmy sway me to LD. Instead, I should have pushed to kill one, then the next one of the two of you, since we would be left with near 100% odds of winning instead of this 50/50 land we live in now. That is why I have been much more vocal this round.
Also, Kiko, I think you are confusing neutrality with being quietly observant as you called out SFA for the same thing, which was one of the things that led him to come out.
Kiko, if you are referring to your actual 8th post asking what null meant, new mafia have done that in the past. Regardless, I appreciate you posting your thoughts. If that is the easter egg, I do not think it sways me one way or another, and I think the recent dialog is much more enlightening.
Roo, you bit really hard on that neutrality piece. Also, I find the timing of your vote switch to be interesting.
I do not know if you actually think I am mafia or if you are just switching to quietly make sure you are on the side with 2 votes, but as I have said all game, your timing has been very strange.
Since this round will probably be open to Monday, I am going to walk away and enjoy my birthday weekend with my family a bit, but whichever of you is a townie, I encourage you to look through the thread and help find the pattern here.
Post by kikosanchez on Aug 25, 2012 20:31:22 GMT -5
No Viking, I meant the 8th overall post on this page. It is by me and begins "Well I may have not" The easter egg is not some interpretive puzzle or anything, it is a few words that Town should recognize quite easily. Happy Birthday Vike.
Thank you both for the birthday wishes. Tomorrow is my birthday and since I will be racing in the morning on a super speedway, I will not be back until the evening.
Kiko, the Easter Egg confused the hell out of me. No worries though. I think you confused everyone on the first page as well if I remember right from reading the thread over a few times earlier today. I will check in via cell probably in the afternoon tomorrow, but cannot really focus until the evening.
I honestly feel like I blew this, since I got talked out of voting for one then the other in day 4, and now I am having a tough time choosing which of you is a townie, and which is mafia. Hopefully with increasing age comes increasing wisdom. If not, adrenaline works great at helping me focus as well!