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Obviously RDK is going to move his vote to me. That leaves Viking and Nick
If you go back and look, not only has RDK been very quiet and trying to fly under the radar, he also voted for Phi (who I am pretty sure is a townie) and tried to get me voted off outright without a runoff. No runoff is best for mafia because it avoids revealing voting patterns and gets a townie out.
What have I done? I have been quite vocal, tried to be available as much as possible and answered everything that was asked of me. I am an open book here. I got a voting partner in the beginning and didn't change my vote because it never made sense to (when I checked in) until I switched to RDK (who I see as very suspicious based on his ACTIONS).
er wat? you were very quiet until you were placed in the runoff.
rdk >>> surf.
If 10 posts in the first 6 pages is quiet... welp, I guess you're right.
You have also made 10 posts in the same amount of time, but almost all of them were simply votes or vote changes (6) with very little being actually said.
I'd like for you to give a decent explanation of why I am suspicious?
1) and MOST IMPORTANTLY you tried to get me voted out without a runoff. This would be a fantastic Mafia strategy. As I have said before, it avoids the townies to see voting patterns. I am comfortable in a runoff because even if I get voted out, if I can create a runoff with someone I believe to be Mafia, it would reveal voting patterns throughout. That way, in the end people can see who voted for whom and it is clearer who the mafia is. Thats called being a team player, and not a selfish mafia. There is no "I" in team, there certainly isnt an R, D or K either.
2) you voted for Phi, who I believe to be a townie. You know who the townies are, and although all of your vote switching to create confusion is a good tactic, in the end your vote ended up on me, phi and back to me. I know Im a townie, and I think Phi is - so you are obviously trying to get us out.
3) Your (possibly) intentional misrepresentations of how vocal I have been, and your attempts to create smoke and mirrors in response to YOUR quiet behavior. Saying I was quiet until I got put into the runoff is not only inaccurate, it is also an attempt to make me look suspicious to others. Hopefully enough go back to see that half of my posts were before the runoff, as I have stated and sees that your attempt at trickery is false.
And yet again, I have explained myself in full. And you have barely said anything.
I'd like for you to give a decent explanation of why I am suspicious?
2) you voted for Phi, who I believe to be a townie.
3) Your (possibly) intentional misrepresentations of how vocal I have been, and your attempts to create smoke and mirrors in response to YOUR quiet behavior. Saying I was quiet until I got put into the runoff is not only inaccurate, it is also an attempt to make me look suspicious to others. Hopefully enough go back to see that half of my posts were before the runoff, as I have stated and sees that your attempt at trickery is false.
I have posted more than most people so not sure what you're going for with me being "quiet". As for not writing essays, if I am voted off then townies still have a chance so I am not that worried. You seem to be very anxious about getting voted off which screams mafia to me.
Your point #2 is probably the most irrelevant argument that can be made. I voted for someone you think is innocent? Go ahead and call everyone in the game mafia then because this is the first round. Nobody knows who the fuck is innocent besides mafia.
2) you voted for Phi, who I believe to be a townie.
3) Your (possibly) intentional misrepresentations of how vocal I have been, and your attempts to create smoke and mirrors in response to YOUR quiet behavior. Saying I was quiet until I got put into the runoff is not only inaccurate, it is also an attempt to make me look suspicious to others. Hopefully enough go back to see that half of my posts were before the runoff, as I have stated and sees that your attempt at trickery is false.
I have posted more than most people so not sure what you're going for with me being "quiet". As for not writing essays, if I am voted off then townies still have a chance so I am not that worried. You seem to be very anxious about getting voted off which screams mafia to me.
Your point #2 is probably the most irrelevant argument that can be made. I voted for someone you think is innocent? Go ahead and call everyone in the game mafia then because this is the first round. Nobody knows who the quack is innocent besides mafia.
I am more interested in you getting voted out than saving my hide. I would be coming after you even if I wasn't in this runoff.
All I did was respond to your questions, I wouldn't call that anxious - I would call it being open. Nice strategy though. Ask question, point out that any answer is suspicious because I am "anxious". If I didn't answer your direct questions directly - THAT would be weird.
And the only person I have really pointed out is you, and I have stuck with that for some time now - and it was based on your ACTIONS.
Yet you continue to point the finger and say almost nothing, other than fallacies and misdirection.
you got me bro I am mafia. Could you show me these ACTIONS?
As for pointing the finger, I honestly don't know if you are mafia or not. However, you are definitely off-track with your crusade against me if you are a townie.
Explain how you believe Phil is innocent? At this point, you shouldn't think anyone is a townie.
Post #184. Im not repeating myself. Either you didn't read it or you are playing dumb.
As far as Phi, I will go back and show why I think he is a townie, but only if it is necessary. At this point I do not believe it to be relevant to what is currently happening.
You continue to stir up dust and avoid truths, and refuse to respond to some very real, concrete reasons why I feel that you are mafia. You just keep avoiding, misdirecting, ignoring and sweeping things under the carpet.
Now all we have to do is find the other 2 of your compadres.
Pretty sure I've responded to all of your "truths". Feel free to send me more if I have missed one.
Looks like you are the one stirring up dust. I have said I'm not sure if you are mafia, so call that "stirring up dust" if you like. You are the one coming up with wild conspiracies and trying to convince people with your failed logic.
I voted for you to put you up to 3. Who gives a fuck? There was ample time for people to change their votes for a runoff which happened.
well the only reason i voted for surf was because i wanted to see a runoff.
honestly i'm not sure what to think of either of you. that's the always the hardest part of mafia...figuring out if people are truly defending themselves or just making shiz up.
if things start stacking one way or the other, i can be swayed to change my vote.
How much more do you need? He is mafia and thumbing his nose at everyone hiding behind the guise of "sarcasm" He will laugh at all of the townies that kept him around after being so ballsey and busting out with that.
2 complete lines of baloney. Mafia LIE. That's what they do.
Here are 2 examples of his attempt at trickery. Don't get fooled.
Unless someone asks me a direct question (that hasn't already been answered ARRR DEEE KAYYYY) Im going to just wait for this round to be over. I have said all I can, I think, and stated my case against RDK the best am able. It would suck to lose this game because we had a mafia on the ropes in the first round and passed on the chance to get him out.
Alright guys. Still not really thinking either of you are mafia. My strategy last game was simply to go with the more hot-headed defender which is was I was so confident Sarah was mafia, but the whole time EAP was sitting back watching us tear each other to shreds. However, Surf is 100% certain that RDK is mafia, not really sure how, but meanwhile RDK is just sure that he ISNT mafia. Which seems less suspicious to me.
So this is a plea to the other townies. I do not think Surf is the Mafia as I will outline below. While I am not confident that RDK is mafia, he is on my top 5 list so I am going to vote for him as reasoned below.
First, I kind of pissed at the people taking shots at how I am playing. Phi, you did somthing similar in your first game, and others have argued that it is worse than this, since you were inspector. In spite of that, you pegged the mafia with your 1 (given), 3 and 4 guesses, and so you can say that this round is a townie homage to that game, since it was one of the best shots the townies have had. Game 45 was closer when SFA was inspector, but LD sabatoged you. In 42, the townies had a legitimite chance because of you. If you don't like how I play, thats fine, but don't say I am playing poorly because there is no good method of being a townie right now, since we keep losing.
Ok, now for this game:
I am pretty certain that Phi and SFA are both mafia, and I am 50% on RDK. Others are on the fence, but if my guess on the mafia is correct, then surf is most likely innocent, since those 3 are the ones that really built all the suspicion around him. People are going to say that this looks like a mafia attempt to save surf, but the mafia usually would let their own die this early so they dont reveal themselves. I hope you all can see that and don't hold this against me.
1 - Go back and look at the first page. Mike D is stuck with the last vote. He votes RDK to get the ball rolling. I follow with a random 3 letter guess. Phi and RDK are voting partners. But within minutes of each other, RDK moves off to reciprocate Mike D BEFORE phi moved off to vote for me. This is what I could not put my finger on, but raised the hairs on voting pairs.
2 - SFA was claiming that everyone was quiet while I was away from the game for the evening and my vote was on him, but that was not true. He spent 2 posts telling me I didn't want him as an enemy. In fact, he was the only one nervous of going into a runoff. Also, phi and RDK had gone quiet at this point. I switched my vote, and SFA immediatly jumped on Surf who had his voting partner on him, and some minor suspicion over his not posting. Surf, I remember the game you committed to NoAge to guess less, because if I remember right, every one of your guesses was wrong. It was the game of promises as I call it.
3 - Abra then moves off me to RDK. 2 posts later, RDK moves his vote to Surf, cancelling the runoff between him and surf. Mike D even called this out at the time. In the mean time, Phi starts shooting random accusations at "quiet people".
4 - SFA only changes his vote to null once I got tossed into the runoff. Then phi, who was already voting for me asks for someone else to vote for me, which would have cancelled the runoff again. At this point, SFA submerges to lurk...
5 - Phi gets tossed into a 4 way runoff, and well Nick says it best here:
Your defense of "nu uh" and "you are going to get whacked" makes me think viking may be on to something.
6 - Phi switches his vote to RDK to cancel the runoff again, which only occurs once people start to believe me and suspect him. IMO, it was a protective move, because SFA still was null on his vote, so there was no real danger, and RDK posted right away basically his aquiesence to being put in the runoff. It was further made suspicious due to Phi's snarky comment:
But more so, if my guess is right, it was an outcome the mafia could control with the SFA ace in the hole. If he put the vote on Surf, both he and RDK would be voting for him, instead of moving people down that path inconspicuously. Also note that both RDK and Phi were online for the entirity of this period both by their posts in other boards and their little back and forth.
7 - RDK then vote matches phi because it would have been suspicious if he didn't, moving them both into a runoff...except for the SFA final vote, and surf at 2. They both use the general feeling of a need for a 3rd person runoff, and finally LLL puts surf into it. Once surf is in, SFA is taken off the hook. As a note, it looks like SFA was really out, since he didnt post for the full day. Just saying to be fair to him, and to show I do my homework.
8 - Runoff starts, and phi immediatly changes and starts saying RDK is innocent, even though his vote put him in the runoff. I am going to count on the "Surf is usually wrong with his guesses" factor here, but he then moves to RDK, but still has 4 votes to the other 3. Also, note that at the top of page 6, Phi and RDK post literally within minutes of each other again, each talking about why the other may be innocent.
9 - I post, and thats when Phi attacked my game playing right away. I had been quiet for a while and watching, but as soon as I point the suspicion back at them, they move to quickly alleviate it, since it looked like surf was going home. Remember, SFA still had not put in his 2 cents. SFA is told by fawn he has to vote and posts this:
SFA, I just want to add before you make your decision. If you really are going to send it into another runoff, be sure to look at who you leave with the deciding votes once that third person leaves the runoff.
I'm not feeling to good about any of my options. Looking back it seems none of the three of you are that suspicious, so starting another runoff might be pointless. I'd rather move some votes around then voting Surf strait off.
Having said that, you are playing totally different then last game when you were Mafia.
SFA >>> RDK
That makes sense because Phi looked more guilty at the time than RDK, who had lost momentum from a guilt standpoint. Also, SFA's claim that Phi was playing different than when he was mafia is only true after I pointed out he is playing different. Prior to that, it matches very closely, not just in number, but in content as well. SFA goes quiet again.
10 - Second runoff starts. Costanza moves to null, and 10 min later, RDK votes for surf. It is the expected move, and there is no criticism, except for the fact that it appears he waited until the balance shifted against him. I don't want to read to much into that, but it is another thing that caught my eye. Surf and RDK begin the accusation battle, Nick and Costanza put their votes on surf and here we stand.
Surf - 6 RDK - 4
I apologize for the novel, and I may be off base, but I have been watching the action closely the last 2 days. After rereading a few times, this is the model that fits the best. I thought through this with surf as mafia too, and there is not a partnering that makes sense, especially since his gaps in all posts match up with the times he says he was gone. This does not make him innocent, but it makes him less guilty than RDK in my mind.
SFA makes a perfect coach to Phi and RDK is the least suspicious. That is my mafia trio until someone can convice me otherwise.
viking, i like how you are taking the time to really read into the game and go in depth, however, as a townie, i would like to see that time spent on someone else and it actually help us not hurt us, which you are doing now. why is it hurting us? well....for the 1,560,508,309 time....I AM A TOWNIE!
you are reading a little too much into things, viking.
it would be ridiculous for me and phil to put each other in the runoff if we were mafia together. I'm not saying he isn't mafia or SFA for that matter but that makes no sense.
Post by abrakapokus on Mar 16, 2012 16:13:27 GMT -5
I don't think RDK and Phi would put each other in the run off even if they were trying to distance one from another however that is what SFA did with me last time I played is basically killed me to save the game for mafia. There is enough people to hide a vote in and really you can take anything someone's said and twist it around to make them seem like mafia or townies. Is it possible that Viking is mafia along with surf and he's posting so much to save a fellow mafia? You are going so hard after Phi it makes me suspicious. I mean, I think I'd look at other players too if I were going to do that much research. I'd like to hear from some other people before I change my vote and we have a few hours left.
I don't think RDK and Phi would put each other in the run off even if they were trying to distance one from another however that is what SFA did with me last time I played is basically killed me to save the game for mafia. There is enough people to hide a vote in and really you can take anything someone's said and twist it around to make them seem like mafia or townies. Is it possible that Viking is mafia along with surf and he's posting so much to save a fellow mafia? You are going so hard after Phi it makes me suspicious. I mean, I think I'd look at other players too if I were going to do that much research. I'd like to hear from some other people before I change my vote and we have a few hours left.
Abra, your game as mafia with SFA is what helped drive me to this theory in the first place. SFA is a very experience player and capable of coming up with something like this. I don't think the original strategy was to put each other in the runoff, but my guess is that it happened to save themselves figuring they could cast enough doubt further on, which they have so far.
With regards to Phi, I am going hard because he was playing like he did as mafia. As I said, I could be wrong. If someone could show me another scenerio, it could change my thinking, but right now, I have laid everything I think out there in several longer posts. You said people can twist anything that is put out there, and I agree. I have put it all out there for everyone to look at.
As far as surf goes, I look incredibly guilty if he is mafia. I could be wrong about his townieness, but I don't think I am. You are the only one to log on except for RDK and phi. I would like others to chime in too.
Ugh looks like you are voting a townie out in the first round AGAIN. I showed with my actions and showed not one but two lines of baloney that RDK Threw out there. Good luck team. Not much more I can do. I'm headed to a show. I will be hoping someone comes to their senses.
Ugh looks like you are voting a townie out in the first round AGAIN. I showed with my actions and showed not one but two lines of baloney that RDK Threw out there. Good luck team. Not much more I can do. I'm headed to a show. I will be hoping someone comes to their senses.
if you are truly a townie then we will be losing a townie regardless. I'm not going to analyze all of your posts. If you guys really think I'm mafia, feel free to switch your vote.