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Ummm. So heres something that doesn't quite jive. According to LLL, she I was her first guess for Mafia after she was given EAP on day one. That means that on day two, she would have known I wasn't mafia. Heres the post:
So now that this has all been said, unless Mafia is going to keep me around. I see how they could since they are saying I am their Mafia name. But that means I get another shot at guessing. Either way, I'm telling you that EAP is my name, I guessed, incorrectly, CST. I thought it was Abra, CST and EAP. Clealy I was WAY off. Ive now decided it is Mike D, EAP and either RDK (seems almost too obvious since he is one CLEARLY voting with them), but I suspect it may be a player who is splitting the vote, and playing a REALLY good townie. I think it may be Nick or Viking. Viking seems kind of gung ho though. But now Nick is busting Mike's balls, but this may just be in hopes of sliding in as a "trusted" townie.
I suggest voting off EAP, no, I plead with you to do that.
Yet, here's a quote from LLL circa day 2, when she would have "known" that I wasn't mafia:
viking, i like how you are taking the time to really read into the game and go in depth, however, as a townie, i would like to see that time spent on someone else and it actually help us not hurt us, which you are doing now. why is it hurting us? well....for the 1,560,508,309 time....I AM A TOWNIE!
Dude, "I'm not mafia/I'm a townie" is like the only thing you've been responding with for the whole game. You have to know that that is weak reasoning for everything. If I had been paying attention at the beginning of the game I would have been much more adamant about voting for you earlier.
I'm gonna wait on you, LLL, what do you think? I really have a feeling about Phi.
And Phi I swear to god if you reply with "lol are you serious? Can't you see whats going on? You're smarter than this, right?" I will vote for you on the spot. You have not felt like a member of the same team as me since the start of the game, you've been going apeshit with your accusations, and yet you're still around. SFA got whacked when he did next to nothing, but you've accused to many people that you HAVE to have at least mentioned one mafia... why are you still alive, then?
I'm trying to be rational about this because my gut tells me Phi but I want to vote in the best interest of the townies, so what do you guys think? Am I the only one who is suspicious as hell about this dude?
Am I the only one who is suspicious as hell about this dude?
No I mean I find it hard to believe he isn't mafia because when he thought he was out of the games. Majority of all he said was I can't wait to see your faces when you find out I was a townie, or game is over if i am out or telling us we are blind.
Am I the only one who is suspicious as hell about this dude?
No I mean I find it hard to believe he isn't mafia because when he thought he was out of the games. Majority of all he said was I can't wait to see your faces when you find out I was a townie, or game is over if i am out or telling us we are blind.
Yeah, he's given us very little concrete evidence of his innocence and the "evidence" he's given us is weak as hell.
Also, why am I still alive? LLL mentioned I was innocent way long ago. Wouldn't the Mafia want as much ambiguity as possible? Why would they leave a KNOWN townsperson in the game? I've been wondering about it for awhile but didn't want to say anything to inspire any crazy theories about how I am mafia, but I can't help but thinking about it.
Heres why I think:
I think they left me around because LLL was saying I am innocent. They killed SFA because he wasn't connected with her theories very much. He was also insistant that I am innocent. Are they setting me up to look like mafia with LLL and SFA? That's all I can think. I think that Phi thought more people would buy into his "LLL is full of it" crusade and he would be able to get people to turn on me, citing that I'm still alive despite the inspector saying I'm "innocent" as a suspicious activity.
Post by nicthedick85 on Mar 22, 2012 10:48:57 GMT -5
And Viking if you feel much better with Phi than Mike D. And believe EAP was mafia. What are the odds as LLL stated that I would be mafia again with the same 2 people as last game.
Post by nicthedick85 on Mar 22, 2012 10:51:23 GMT -5
The odds are about the only thing I have to believe Phi isn't mafia. Same 3 this game we should play lottery. Atleast same two (phi and eap) you won a grand on poker night. But I have won lots of money on poker night so thats why I still have my doubts on Phi.
Ok, finished reading Mike Ds posts. LLL, I can see where you see the connection. I started switching right after he voted. He jumped on what I saw about phi, but if you look at the posts, he did not do it right away. While he said it was an interesting theory, he wanted more proof. We both switched from Phi to EAP, but I don't know how you can fault us for both thinking you were the real inspector.
And both of us believe Nic is probably mafia.
This game makes it impossible for me to show you that we are not connected. All I can say is that if we were, I would not have tossed him in the runoff this round.
Mike D and I do disagree in 1 key point. He thinks surf could have been mafia, and I don't think he was, as I posted in Runoff 2 of Day 1. We have 2 rounds left to get 1, and a third round to get the other. As long as we kill off Phi, Nic, and Mike D in some order, the townies will win. Phi is just first because he seems so much more guilty.
Reading back on it as much as I have in the last 12 hours, I am more and more convinced I am right about EAP trying to out the inspector. We had her and Phi in the runoff. If I am right, that was a 2 mafia runoff in round 2, and the more experienced mafia players can correct me, but that is pretty rare. This would define one of those back against the wall scenerios, especially since Phi still would have looked guilty in round 3. So the fake inspector comes out, and they were between LLL and Mike D as the real inspector. Either way, they can accuse one of the 2 of you as faking, since there is a 33% chance you had one of their names, and both of you had shifted to EAP at that point, which raises the probablilty. Either nic or I could have been the 3rd, since we were pretty off the mafiadar at that point, and fairly well hidden. The mafia's plan could have worked if we believed them or not. If we believe EAP, Phi dies, and they kill Mike D overnight. Then target you the next day with 2 mafia left. If we don't believe them, EAP dies, and they kill you, but instead, they killed SFA who saw right through the mess and in a large part, was responsible for the plan failing. Phi still is suspicious, so he dies this round, but the 3rd member is still fairly well hidden, and we basically start from square one. At this point though, the mafia know better than to support each other since we have 3 rounds to find 2 people out of 4.
Go back and do a search on Mike D's posts without the noise of everyone chirping around them. After rereading them, I think the above scenerio is much more likely than EAP trying to distance from Mike D, because why would she highlight another mafia member? If we only had 1 pinned, why the fake inspector? Also, the Mike D as mafia train pulled out of the station with Phi as the conductor and EAP stoking the flames. Non-mafia jumped on board only after they did.
I know I said he was mafia earlier in the round, but my new revised mafia list is EAP, Phi, Nic
As for me being mafia, I have tried to be as transparent as possible. If that seems mafialike, I can't help it. I have been on phi from day one, and really want the townies to win this game. Going back to read nic's posts now. Take this analysis or leave it. Its my best shot given what we have at this point.
I didnt even think about that. That worries me. As suspicious as I still think Phi is, I really don't know if 2 people would both be mafia two games in a row...
And Viking if you feel much better with Phi than Mike D. And believe EAP was mafia. What are the odds as LLL stated that I would be mafia again with the same 2 people as last game.
1.97%, but I am a roulette player in Vegas. 1/36 odds, and I have hit my 1 number 3 times in a row. Those are great nights, because it feels great to beat the casino with the odds are stacked against you. Kinda like now...
People play colors or odds & evens in roulette because the chances are so low that they will hit their number on the table. They would gladly take a 2 to 1 payout instead of a 36 to 1 because it is much less risky. However, that is the sucker bet on the roulette table, since the casino wins much more often over the long run. Say you play 5 games with $100 a piece. You bet red, and it only hits 2 times. You are still down $100. But say you bet 14, which is a red number and my lucky number. It hits twice, you walk away with $6900. My point is, they are trying to sucker you in with odds by making it seem like a longshot. I could be wrong, so punch holes in the facts I laid out. But I always get leery when people start quoting odds.
Post by nicthedick85 on Mar 22, 2012 11:03:53 GMT -5
I am sticking to this list. Phi, Mike D, Viking each need to go a round, one is a townie. If I get voted off hopefully the one sticks to the plan and votes off the other two.
Viking I really don't think it's EAP Nic and Phi... that's the exact same mafia as last game.
Just give me some rope on this one. If I am wrong, you, LLL, and RDK can hang me in the 5th round. I am a townie, so you would lose if you did that. It does not matter to me what order you kill them, but I think we win in round 4 if we kill Phi, then Nic. If you decide on Mike D, then Phi then Nic or some other order of them, we win in round 5.
Also, they kept you around since they were counting on us not diving all the way in with LLL as the inspector. If that didn't work, they figured they could manipulate you and RDK because your votes are gold. Look at how Nic played earlier in this round. Lock step with you guys, without too much elaboration, while subtly hinting I could be mafia too.
Mafia is not a casino game. These analogies do absolutely nothing for me.
No, but it is an odds game. You have a 27+% chance of being mafia at the draw. Say you were mafia the round before. What are your chances of being mafia the next game? 27+%.
Say you had 3 mafia the game before. That combo draws 1.97%. What are the chances the next time? 1.97%. My point is, the odds don't change from game to game. While it is RARE, it does happen. And while it has not happened to my knowledge before, we are approaching the 50th game, which is pretty close to 2%.
Trust the patterns much more than odds discussion. I used the casino simile because like in a casino, talking about odds activates the risk aversion part of our brain and drives us to the less "risky" choice. Throw out odds and look at facts.
I am sticking to this list. Phi, Mike D, Viking each need to go a round, one is a townie. If I get voted off hopefully the one sticks to the plan and votes off the other two.
Care to back any of that with facts, or are you just throwing it out there?
Post by nicthedick85 on Mar 22, 2012 11:22:38 GMT -5
Fact is I am going off LLL 3 of the 4 of us have to go. Pretty sure I have done nothing guilty. Seeing as I pushed this hard to get most of you off and probably wouldn't be doing so if I was mafia. I am a townie and I want to win.
Ummm. So heres something that doesn't quite jive. According to LLL, she I was her first guess for Mafia after she was given EAP on day one. That means that on day two, she would have known I wasn't mafia. Heres the post:
So now that this has all been said, unless Mafia is going to keep me around. I see how they could since they are saying I am their Mafia name. But that means I get another shot at guessing. Either way, I'm telling you that EAP is my name, I guessed, incorrectly, CST. I thought it was Abra, CST and EAP. Clealy I was WAY off. Ive now decided it is Mike D, EAP and either RDK (seems almost too obvious since he is one CLEARLY voting with them), but I suspect it may be a player who is splitting the vote, and playing a REALLY good townie. I think it may be Nick or Viking. Viking seems kind of gung ho though. But now Nick is busting Mike's balls, but this may just be in hopes of sliding in as a "trusted" townie.
I suggest voting off EAP, no, I plead with you to do that.
Yet, here's a quote from LLL circa day 2, when she would have "known" that I wasn't mafia:
Why would she submit me on a list of possible mafia? LLL?
That was a joke CST. I was echoing the way that Phi had at that point listed almost everyone. I listed everyone who was still alive but me. Even Fawn laughed at it.
We're all a mess of paradoxes. Believing in things we know can't be true. We walk around carrying feelings too complicated and contradictory to express. But when it all becomes too big, and words aren't enough to help get it all out, there's always music.
Also, why am I still alive? LLL mentioned I was innocent way long ago. Wouldn't the Mafia want as much ambiguity as possible? Why would they leave a KNOWN townsperson in the game? I've been wondering about it for awhile but didn't want to say anything to inspire any crazy theories about how I am mafia, but I can't help but thinking about it.
Heres why I think:
I think they left me around because LLL was saying I am innocent. They killed SFA because he wasn't connected with her theories very much. He was also insistant that I am innocent. Are they setting me up to look like mafia with LLL and SFA? That's all I can think. I think that Phi thought more people would buy into his "LLL is full of it" crusade and he would be able to get people to turn on me, citing that I'm still alive despite the inspector saying I'm "innocent" as a suspicious activity.
They know who all of the townies are at the beginning of the game CST. They know everyone's roll except for Inspector. They already knew you were a Townie. But if you look, there are people who have tried to pair us up since I said that you are innocent, and it is because if you are going to paint me as Mafia, it is safest to pair me up with the two people I am saying are 100% innocent.
I also said SFA was innocent. I've played many games with EAP, Mike D and SFA. I have a real feel for how they play. SFA was playing innocent. Mike D is playing guilty.
That is why I REALLY REALLY REALLY urge you all to vote off Mike D. It gives us a better chance to flush out the last one. It may very well be Phi, but the 3rd Mafia has to slick and unassuming. Phi was playing like a Townie most of the game, but he started blowing it at the end of last round. Whoever the last Mafia is will have to be slick enough to convince everyone I am Mafia and who my partner is.
I can't decide if they are going to kill me off, or keep me and hope that they can turn everyone on me. I guess we'll see.
I hate using the words "trust me" because it sounds like a sharky used car salesman phrase. But seriously, if you want townies to win, get rid of Mike D. I am CERTAIN he is Mafia. His voting matches up and I know his playing style. Mike D has a Mafia magnet. For real. Go back and look how many times he has been Mafia. It is UNREAL. So I have a lot to go off of when I say he is playing like he does when he is Mafia. I think it was my very first game that I played, SFA was Mafia, Mike D was Mafia. I had them both figured out right away. SFA because I know him personally, so I could tell he wasn't playing like I would expect him to play as an innocent.
We are far better off in the odds dept if we vote off Mike D. Then, if they keep me around, you even have time to vote me off if you think that I am playing you. Because if one of you still believes EAP was Inspector, and she really did have my name and Mike D---then you have at least gotten rid of one of us and you still have time to get rid of the other. Win Win.
We're all a mess of paradoxes. Believing in things we know can't be true. We walk around carrying feelings too complicated and contradictory to express. But when it all becomes too big, and words aren't enough to help get it all out, there's always music.
We're all a mess of paradoxes. Believing in things we know can't be true. We walk around carrying feelings too complicated and contradictory to express. But when it all becomes too big, and words aren't enough to help get it all out, there's always music.
We're all a mess of paradoxes. Believing in things we know can't be true. We walk around carrying feelings too complicated and contradictory to express. But when it all becomes too big, and words aren't enough to help get it all out, there's always music.
If you believe me that I am Inspector, trust me there.
If you don't you still win because you got rid of my "partner" Mike D.
Sorry LLL. It is going to make me look Mafia as hell, but I am voting for phi and not Mike D. Unless you can show me a logic train that works better, I am sticking with what I came up with. You have been wrong twice so far, and I think you are wrong here. Note, you being wrong does not make you a bad inspector or make me not believe you. I still think yo uare inspector, and that CSTNZ and RDK are innocent. Otherwise, we are all dead anyways.
Although Fawn is really good about giving us ample time to settle our discussion and votes, I have waited a little bit to make sure everyone gets talking and get anything else out there they wanted. I am sure we still have a little bit of time still.
Something I would like to add particularly to Viking - As far as the odds of roles and whatnot, I have been living proof that you can't base it on who had what roles last game, SFA pointed that out earlier. Granted, if you feel equally suspicious about folks, I can understand looking at previous games and using that as a supplement to your vote, but I don't feel you can/should build a case on someone with that being a main point. Every game starts fresh with no account to previous roles. With that though, just about every game includes arguments/debates based on return players previous roles.
Also like to say I'm pretty sure I have explained any concerns about me, but please let me know if there is anything else you want me to explain.
Nic >> Mike D >> Phi RDK >> LLL >> Mike D >> Null >> Phi Phi >> Mike D LLL >> LLL >> Phi >> Mike D CST >> Phi >> Mike D >> Phi Viking >> Phi >> Mike D >> Phi