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This is just a question I'm posing for the sake of conversation (Alberto, I agree with you on Loshe): at what point does it stop being luck?
By that I mean, let's just say a guy is known for throwing balls that are put in play, but he rarely misses to the point that he gives up a lot of HR's. He posts, year after year, high strand rates and low BABIP, I mean, it'd be rare, but there has to be pitchers who have done that for the long haul, right?
Oh, you mean Jeremy Hellickson? Matt Cain and Jered Weaver are two other guys who continually outpitch what their peripherals suggest year after year. The latter two have something to do with being EXTREME fly-ball pitchers, although admittedly I'm not really sure why that skews their peripherals so much.
It's hard to determine when it becomes obvious that is a skill as opposed to luck. With Weaver, it's pretty easy to see that he has simply been getting better as a pitcher by looking at his BABIP trends ever since his rookie year (.312, .298, .278, .276, .250, .241). He gets better at inducing weak contact every season.
With Hellickson, the jury is still out. All the sabermatricians thought he would tank last season after he finished 2nd in the MLB (only to Jered Weaver) with an 82% strand percentage and 1st in BABIP with .223, numbers which seemed very likely to regress closer to the league average. However, he did it again this year leading the league with an 82.7% strand percentage and finishing 7th in BABIP with .261. Give him one more season of 75+ strand% and a sub .265 BABIP and I think it just becomes clear that there is something in his game (mostly pitching to weak contact) that allows him to strand runners at a very high rate and it becomes seen as skill rather than a fluke.
However, with a guy like Lohse, it just doesn't add up. Granted, something seemed to have clicked for the guy in the past couple seasons and he has become a better pitcher than what he once was. But still, the numbers don't make much sense. For example, his 77.2% strand percentage last year and his .262 BABIP are massive outliers from his career averages of 70% and .297 (both close to the league average). When you see a guy hovering around the same number (Like Hellickson so far) or slightly improving consistently each year (Weaver) it points more to gained skills. When you see massive fluctuations from one season to the next like Lohse, it points much more to random chance than skill. Especially when you dig a little deeper and see that he somehow posted the best BABIP of his career (and 9th lowest in the MLB) while also posting a career-high in LD% with 24% (6th highest in MLB). So he's getting hit harder than ever, but posting career lows in BABIP? That just doesn't add up, and sooner or later those line drives are gonna start falling in and you'll see his ERA balloon.
As a fan who has watched Lohse pitch a ton over the past few seasons, I can honestly say it seems that maturity has really just done him wonders. If I was in most teams shoes I wouldn't pay him the money he wants either, however the conversation when dealing with the Royals makes a lot more sense to me. They needed a guy who could come in and be the guy of their rotation, and Lohse could have easily filled that role albeit for 1 or 2 years. As it stands that gave up (IMO) too much to go after the moves they made. Why not just sign the free agent and retain that young talent? That's why I believe it was a superior move.
As far as Lynn goes, definitely pulled from the rotation due to innings. Ultimately, he just couldn't handle that workload as a rookie. He's a huge question mark as far as I'm concerned, which is why I would like to see the Cardinals make a play for a quality shortstop by giving him up. Especially when considering Kelly, Rosenthal, and Miller are all viable candidates to fill his role.
I am pretty excited for the Reds getting Choo. For one that was our weakness last year, nobody was hitting at the top of the lineup and he was a Reds killer.
Post by Alberto Balsalm on Dec 12, 2012 2:29:16 GMT -5
He's a great player, you guys are gonna love him. Not sure how the CF thing will go but he's a solid hitter who is above average in every aspect of the game and is very easy to like. I'm real sad to see him go but getting back Trevor Bauer (plus a serviceable replacement in Stubbs who is under contract for 3 years as opposed to Choo's 1 who wasn't coming back to Cleveland anyway) makes it pretty easy to stomach
Great American Ballpark is one of the smallest OF's in all of Major League Baseball. The only problem I see is when we go out west to some of the gigantic parks. And yeah, I thought it was a good move on Cleveland's part. He was not signing back (he won't sign with the Reds either, we just got him for this coming season so Billy Hamilton can be ready by 2014 season) and you got a top 10 prospect out of him...but you won't enjoy Stubbs.
I still can't understand the D-backs though. Pretty much trading Bauer for Didi? I guess...
Great American Ballpark is one of the smallest OF's in all of Major League Baseball. The only problem I see is when we go out west to some of the gigantic parks. And yeah, I thought it was a good move on Cleveland's part. He was not signing back (he won't sign with the Reds either, we just got him for this coming season so Billy Hamilton can be ready by 2014 season) and you got a top 10 prospect out of him...but you won't enjoy Stubbs.
I still can't understand the D-backs though. Pretty much trading Bauer for Didi? I guess...
Stubbs was actually much more of a contact hitter before he was Bakerized. He might end up in the .250-.260 range, perhaps a bit higher. Tribe needed to move Choo due to Boras and Sanchez (hasn't touched a lefty since Sanchez busted him).
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Great American Ballpark is one of the smallest OF's in all of Major League Baseball. The only problem I see is when we go out west to some of the gigantic parks. And yeah, I thought it was a good move on Cleveland's part. He was not signing back (he won't sign with the Reds either, we just got him for this coming season so Billy Hamilton can be ready by 2014 season) and you got a top 10 prospect out of him...but you won't enjoy Stubbs.
I still can't understand the D-backs though. Pretty much trading Bauer for Didi? I guess...
Stubbs was actually much more of a contact hitter before he was Bakerized. He might end up in the .250-.260 range, perhaps a bit higher. Tribe needed to move Choo due to Boras and Sanchez (hasn't touched a lefty since Sanchez busted him).
Every year he has played in the majors it has been under Baker. Who knows, maybe getting in a new situation will do good for him...but as a Reds fan he was the most frustrating player to watch. One of the fastest players in all of baseball, and he has been in the top 10 in strikeouts the past three seasons. If he just puts the ball on the ground he has a chance at getting on base and stealing second...but you can't steal first.
Trout-Hamilton-Pujols will be a fun inning for every pitcher.
Think they will hit him 2? I was thinking about that just for the fact of having all 3 right in a row but Trout - (Kendrick? Aybar?) - Pujols - Hamilton might make more sense
I expect the Angels to go full force after Dickey now with their weak starting rotation. Bourjos is a start, I could see Trumbo being moved too
With the Angels making this move and Toronto/Texas both needing a top-flight pitcher to (in their minds) keep pace, the Mets' hand just got a lot better. I still don't want them to trade Dickey, but if one of those teams is desperate, I'm game.
Youk signs with the Yanks for $12m for one year. What was wrong with Chavez at less than half the price? Not that I hate Youk but they are pretty equal at this stage of their careers.
Trout-Hamilton-Pujols will be a fun inning for every pitcher.
Think they will hit him 2? I was thinking about that just for the fact of having all 3 right in a row but Trout - (Kendrick? Aybar?) - Pujols - Hamilton might make more sense
Either way, good luck pitchers of the AL
I think it'd be an interesting idea to bat Hamilton 2nd, but there's no chance Scioscia would ever do it.
Youk signs with the Yanks for $12m for one year. What was wrong with Chavez at less than half the price? Not that I hate Youk but they are pretty equal at this stage of their careers.
Agreed. Sick of these 1-year signings for ridiculous amounts of money for someone past his prime.
I'm going to be depressed once this Dickey trade becomes official.
Until I watch d'Arnaud play baseball and Syndergaard pitch.
Yeah I think this is a pretty great trade for both teams. It's similar to the Rays-Royals trade in that one team gets the other teams top prospect that nobody thought would be traded for a top of the line pitcher, except it actually makes sense for the Blue Jays because getting Dickey makes them a legit contender while getting Shields just makes the Royals slightly better than .500, maybe.
The Mets got a great haul for Dickey too. D'Arnaud should be a stud and Syndegaard has looked great, although he is still so young there's no telling how he'll pan out. He is the true wildcard in the trade because they really dont need him to pan out for the trade to be a success for the Mets because D'Arnaud will likely be enough, but if he does pan out it'll likely make the trade a total steal for New York.
It's gotta be tough for a Met fan to see Dickey go, though.
I completely agree with Alberto, this is one of those rare trades where two teams in very different stages found pretty much perfect matches.
The Jays are making their move, and at a time when both the Yankees and Sox are weakened what better time is there going to be for them? For anyone trying to slight Dickey with comments about pitching in the AL, he is 4-0 with an ERA in the 1.7's against the AL East since joining the Mets. He will dominate in the dome where his knuckleball will be even harder to hit. He will be a favorite among the fans and he'll pitch his heart out for you every time he goes out there, without fail. He doesn't take a single pitch off, ever, and it's a joy to watch because you can see it in his body language. Every pitch is an uptick or downtick with him, but he rarely has two downers in a row. He really is that good.
And I love that the Mets have a future battery of Wheeler/Harvey/Syndergaard/Niese/Pitcher X (could be a prospect, FA signing, trade, who knows) and d'Arnaud. Sandy Alderson joined the Mets and said "pitching and defense," and it might've taken a year longer than most fans would have liked, but the plan is starting to take shape.
It's just never going to be an easy memory to think back on the day I realized Dickey was getting traded. Hopefully his story still has a bunch of pages left to be written, and you're god damn right I'm buying a ticket to a Dickey performance at Yankee stadium and rocking my Mets/Dickey shirt.
And this is fair to RA in the sense that he's going to a team with a chance to contend. It would have been almost unfair to let what few peak years he has remaining go to waste on 75-85 win teams while the Mets rebuilt with younger players.
*Side note to general popular discussion: And Drew goes to the Red Sox, allowing the Cardinals to remain passive on pretty much the only position they need to make adjustments to. Kudos to Boston, though, great signing IMO.
(Kendrick? Aybar?) - Pujols - Hamilton might make more sense
