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The Interim Assistant-Director of the World Health Organization, Dr Feiji Fukuda, participated in a press meeting on May 4 where he made statements and answered questions. Here is part of his opening statement:
"Now, in this situation, it is critical that we continue to maintain and strengthen our alertness and surveillance. We have concerns about the infection travelling to the southern hemisphere because that part of the world will be heading into the winter months and the winter months are when influenza viruses usually thrive, and so you typically see epidemics and outbreaks of influenza occur during those colder months. But, I think you can see from right now, that this virus continues to move to a variety of countries in the northern hemisphere. So it is not that surveillance has to be strong just in the southern hemisphere, it really needs to be strong everywhere. Right now we really don't know how this will go, what other countries it may move to in the northern hemisphere and in the tropics. We are very mindful however, that we are heading into the winter in the southern hemisphere.
The issue which many people are asking about – rightly so – is about the spectrum of illness. What do we know at this point? To summarize from the information that has come in from all of the countries from the cases we can see a spectrum of illness going from very mild cases where people develop some fever, some symptoms but don't require hospitalization, to cases that end in fatalities. As I mentioned earlier, we now know that 26 people have died from this infection.
There also have been some important observations that have to be verified but they are important observations. So from the investigators in Mexico, for example, we know that severe pneumonia and death can occur in young and healthy people. This is a very important observation we have to follow up on and keep monitoring. Another kind of observation is that ,based on the available cases, we have seen that diarrhoea is reported more often than we typically see with influenza. So there may be 40–50 percent of cases which develop diarrhoea which, again, is more than we see with typical influenza.
At that point, I think it is hard to say much more about the clinical spectrum of illness. We do expect information to continue to be collected. The investigators are very mindful that this is one of the critical aspects that we all want to know about and so I expect more information to come in over days and weeks.
Another question related to the illness is the incubation period. To put this in perspective with regular influenza, we typically see that the incubation period for influenza viruses is probably up to about 5 days – that would be a good range of incubation periods for regular influenza. With this virus, based on the current investigations, there is some uncertainty as to whether the incubation period may be up to a few days longer. So, there are questions about whether the incubation period may be 6, 7 or 8 days. Again I think the investigators will be working hard to refine those estimates. But that's the current question about the incubation period.
If we ask ourselves what are the main questions about the disease that we would all like to know about, I think the most important one is how often does it lead to severe disease. If you infect a large number of people, will you expect to see a small percentage develop disease that needs to be hospitalized or will we expect to see a larger number of deaths. I think these are the questions that we are trying to understand as quickly as possible. Again I mentioned that diarrhoea may be a more prominent feature of this illness than with usual influenza. Are there other symptoms? Are there other unusual findings? Again this is an important question.
The third area of questions is what age groups are most heavily affected. In past pandemics we have seen that all age groups are affected, but sometimes young and healthy people can be disproportionately affected compared to what they normally would be from regular influenza.
So these are the kinds of questions that the investigators are looking at right now and trying to figure out.
A third point I want to cover is the pandemic phase, because there have been many questions about this. How would we go to Phase 6, what does it mean exactly. So in terms of what we are looking for, the difference between going from being in Phase 5 which is where we are seeing sustained community activity in at least two countries in one region in North America, we are now looking for whether there is evidence of sustained community transmission in a country in another region. So it could be Europe, it could be Asia, it could be in Africa, it could be in South America, but we are looking for the evidence of that and that is why we are monitoring the cases so carefully to see whether there is any evidence that there is a pattern different than the travel-related cases.
There is some confusion about whether going to Phase 6 says anything about the severity of disease. These are separate issues and I hope everyone is very clear about it and if you are not, please ask me questions. Phase 6 means that we are seeing continued spread of the virus to countries outside of one region, and if we are seeing community outbreaks occur in multiple regions of the world, it really tells us that the virus has established itself, and that we can expect to see disease in most countries of the world. But that is different from the severity of a pandemic.
The severity of a pandemic has to do with when people get infected, how often are they going to develop really severe disease. Will we see younger people develop serious disease more often than usual, will there be anything unusual about pregnant women, will there be anything unusual about children? These are the kinds of things that we would be looking at in order to determine severity. So there are two separate things. I hope this is clear and please ask me if it is not."
So, how do statements by the Interim Assistant-Director of WHO apply to Bonnaroo. Certainly people attending Roo fit into the general category of young and healthy. It is still an open question if this group will be disproportionately affected.
If diarrhea is a symptom of this flu, do portajohns present an additional risk of infection?
Although official declaration does not call this a pandemic flu, technically the situation is close to meeting the criteria. Severity still has not been characterized, but is an active area of study.
Based on the statements of health authorities, I don't think Tennessee can make a decision on Bonnaroo one way or the other at this time.
So, how do statements by the Interim Assistant-Director of WHO apply to Bonnaroo.
Dude, the statement you quoted was about the southern hemisphere.
Stop trying to connect this to Roo or I shall taunt you a second time.
You're wrong about the Director's statement:
"But, I think you can see from right now, that this virus continues to move to a variety of countries in the northern hemisphere. So it is not that surveillance has to be strong just in the southern hemisphere, it really needs to be strong everywhere. Right now we really don't know how this will go, what other countries it may move to in the northern hemisphere and in the tropics. We are very mindful however, that we are heading into the winter in the southern hemisphere."
"To summarize from the information that has come in from all of the countries from the cases we can see a spectrum of illness going from very mild cases where people develop some fever, some symptoms but don't require hospitalization, to cases that end in fatalities."
"So in terms of what we are looking for, the difference between going from being in Phase 5 which is where we are seeing sustained community activity in at least two countries in one region in North America, we are now looking for whether there is evidence of sustained community transmission in a country in another region."
The director mentioned the southern hemisphere as an are of interest because they are entering the season when flu is typically worse. The statement was given *yesterday*, May 4.
I just heard a news story on NPR that WHO is shipping Tamiflu to 3rd World countries, the identity of which is not being released. No reason was given for withholding identities.
Although official declaration does not call this a pandemic flu, technically the situation is close to meeting the criteria. Severity still has not been characterized, but is an active area of study.
Based on the statements of health authorities, I don't think Tennessee can make a decision on Bonnaroo one way or the other at this time.
Ok you are moving from alarmist to guy in his underwear with a end of the world sandwhich board dude. The worst part is some random internet user is reading this crap and sizing up a tinfoil hat so they can sit in the closet with you and keep the government out of their head. So hear are some FACTS not a news article with as much spin as I can possibly put on it
FACTS
1 Global case load of the H1N1 is under 1000 cases, thats global not just the US or just Mexico. I dont know how you define pandemic but it is more than 1000 people getting the sniffles.
2. Deaths have equaled less than 20 most that have died have been the usual people who die when they get the flu, mainly the oldest and youngest.
3. This flu is not particularly severe, there is no indication that is attacking the teens, and middle aged causing deaths like the 1918 flu did
4. For all your panicking Mexico City which to say the least has hygiene issues had 450 cases or so out of 25 million people.
5. Not only are they not talking about closing down public gatherings, there has been specific talk that they are not even considering that at this point.
I am getting out of this thread as the Miss Piggy flu is already old news, but really dude give it a rest, get ready for Bonnaroo, and stop trying to scare the kiddies.
Last Edit: May 5, 2009 10:06:59 GMT -5 by Deleted - Back to Top
Post by nitetimeritetime on May 5, 2009 10:32:57 GMT -5
How about changing to 'swine = "not about Bonnaroo which is why it got moved to the Other Tent forum, so stop trying to connect it to Bonnaroo or I shall taunt you a second time"
Or better yet, you could learn how to quote things in such a way that the parts you quote are relevant to the points you attempt to draw from the larger statement.
Although official declaration does not call this a pandemic flu, technically the situation is close to meeting the criteria. Severity still has not been characterized, but is an active area of study.
Based on the statements of health authorities, I don't think Tennessee can make a decision on Bonnaroo one way or the other at this time.
I am getting out of this thread as the Miss Piggy flu is already old news, but really dude give it a rest, get ready for Bonnaroo, and stop trying to scare the kiddies.
You make valid points. "Severity" has not been characterized officially, but it certainly doesn't look like it is a concern. My point in continuing this thread is to follow flu news that may have any effect on Bonnaroo. Flu cases in Tennessee count. Public health advisories related to public gatherings, especially in Tennessee, count. Small advisories, such as advice that the sick stay home, count. I also have a morbid interest in Tennessee politics as it relates to flu and Bonnaroo.
Since most states will respond to recommendation by the CDC, and the CDC and WHO work closely, I usually look at their tallies and public statements as being authoritative. Everything else is just the tail wagging the dog.
The thread name was filtered, the thread was then locked, unlocked, then wrapped in tinfoil and put in the back of the fridge for cold storage. I'm happy to be the only one posting in the thread.
Or better yet, you could learn how to quote things in such a way that the parts you quote are relevant to the points you attempt to draw from the larger statement.
I directly referenced the quote, as it relates to confirmed cases in North America and the Northern Hemisphere, and how these cases are being characterized (disproportionate affects in the young and healthy, and incidence of diarrhea). Again, these are from cases in the Northern Hemisphere, and primarily in North America.
Post by nitetimeritetime on May 5, 2009 11:43:02 GMT -5
The part you quoted in that post was about monitoring SA, and only mentioned NA in relation to that, but whatev.
I actually think this is a good topic for conversation and don't want the thread locked. It just doesn't have anything to do with Roo, and continuously steering the topic back in that direction makes you appear foolish (or alarmist).
But I don't think it's alarmist to mention, for example, the pattern that previous flu pandemics have taken. As you mentioned, this could come back in the fall/winter as a really dangerous virus, and it's worth discussing for that reason at least.
I am getting out of this thread as the Miss Piggy flu is already old news, but really dude give it a rest, get ready for Bonnaroo, and stop trying to scare the kiddies.
You make valid points. "Severity" has not been characterized officially, but it certainly doesn't look like it is a concern. My point in continuing this thread is to follow flu news that may have any effect on Bonnaroo. Flu cases in Tennessee count. Public health advisories related to public gatherings, especially in Tennessee, count. Small advisories, such as advice that the sick stay home, count. I also have a morbid interest in Tennessee politics as it relates to flu and Bonnaroo.
Since most states will respond to recommendation by the CDC, and the CDC and WHO work closely, I usually look at their tallies and public statements as being authoritative. Everything else is just the tail wagging the dog.
The thread name was filtered, the thread was then locked, unlocked, then wrapped in tinfoil and put in the back of the fridge for cold storage. I'm happy to be the only one posting in the thread.
You say this, but you also say stuff like
Based on the statements of health authorities, I don't think Tennessee can make a decision on Bonnaroo one way or the other at this time.
Statements like that is what makes me call you an attention starved alarmist. You are like Bill O'Reilly all you do is choose the juiciest news you can find then spin it in a direction designed to cause a reaction in a specific demographic. If you want the Miss Piggy flu, and yourself to be treated seriously try to back yourself up with facts not spin, and fear mongering.
Last Edit: May 5, 2009 11:50:29 GMT -5 by Deleted - Back to Top
I think our biggest concern, flu-wise, is the fall and winter. They've said it will probably die down around here, but possibly pop back up in the normal flu season.
You are like Bill O'Reilly all you do is choose the juiciest news you can find then spin it in a direction designed to cause a reaction in a specific demographic. If you want the Miss Piggy flu, and yourself to be treated seriously try to back yourself up with facts not spin, and fear mongering.
Ok. I found it. The federal government says modification, postponement or cancellation of selected public gatherings be "considered" when the Pandemic Severity Index reaches a rating of "Category 2." Category 2 is achieved when deaths attributable to flu reaches 90,000 in the U.S. population, based on 2006 figures; See: www.pandemicflu.gov/plan/community/commitigation.html#XVI
Looks like we have *nothing* to worry about. Thanks for forcing me to do the research.
*sigh*how the hell did this make it to 14 pages? Someone sent me a text today that said Its funny how 90 people get swine flu everyone starts wearing face masks....millions of people have AIDS and noone wears a condom.
i live in in san antonio, and they cancelled my kindergarten class' field trip to the zoo today because of swine flue. the district has stopped all field trips for the rest of the year. not cool.
Your quacking kidding you are considering calling the the mayor of Manchester and Tennessee authorities because of you quacking obsessive mental health issues. For gods sake take your f ucking medications and calm down.
The CDC is now recommending that schools don't close if there's an infected student. They just want the infected person to stay home for a week. So it's kinda like the chicken pox or normal flu now. Huh. Who woulda thought?
*sigh*how the hell did this make it to 14 pages? Someone sent me a text today that said Its funny how 90 people get Miss Piggy flu everyone starts wearing face masks....millions of people have AIDS and noone wears a condom.