I see the writing on the wall. I'm just going to let the inevitable mistake happen. I'll read my death story and avoid the following five pages. But not without a parting thought.
I bet the mafia's rooting for me by this point. Through all this filibustering on deaf ears, I think we citizens ultimately did them a favor. Voting is currently: kdogg 8 cajun 1 (my vote. I still have nothing else to go on because I was a marked man) areyoukind 1 (from purplefuzzy, who noted it was on an alphabetical basis) Tonight, the mafia will whack one of you citizens. Eight votes against a dead me and one on an alphabetical basis basically deprives you of a round of voting records to base your decisions on. So the mafia pretty much got a pass from us this round. It's not a good legacy to have, but I can't say I didn't try.
You bastards better give me a good death story. I'm thinking maybe something involving Brian Posehn or Kanye glow-in-the-dark-themed.
I'm about to walk out the door, but I'll have you guys a death story in the morning, I assure you. If anyone wants to help me out by offering up one, that'd be great-- but if not, I'll have it in the morning.
Post by handgunhipster on Apr 12, 2008 8:47:25 GMT -5
The townspeople have spoken, and voted kdogg to his death.
It was a dark night at Bonnaroo, and Kdogg has made his way to the Kanye West set. He scores a spot right near the stage, he can see everything! He is enjoying the outstanding light show that is part of Kanye's glow-in-the-dark theme. All while, he doesn't notice that one of the lights has come a little loose and is swaying above his head. Right as Kanye enters into one of his final songs, the light comes loose and comes falling from the sky. Kdogg looks up just in time to realize he can't escape it. Kdogg gets hit in the head with the light and is killed upon impact.
Left to play: purplefuzzystuff almostcertain samus cajun sadielady cupcake inertiaticc meg bama areyoukind
It is now night.. Mafia- PM me your vote and death story Inspector- PM your guess.
On the Odds of Me being Mafia Two Consecutive Rounds
Since you people obviously don't take me on my own personal word that I am not mafia, I can only hope a numerical Hail Mary analysis can back me up here. As I said earlier, you can argue with a person but it is more difficult to argue against impartial data.
There are 121 possible combinations of successive role assignments that can be had in two consecutive rounds of this game, as played with eleven players.
In this analysis, I will use the letters A-K representing roles in the first round and the numbers 1-11 representing roles in the second round. Lettered and numbered roles will correspond; a first-round A equals a second-round 2, and so on. I will try to keep this simple, since you people seem to have an anti-"thinky" bias against me. The Inspector role will complicate things, is unnecessary for my purposes and will thus be excluded. The changing roster of the game does not matter - this is to demonstrate the likelihood that I, as but one player, have of being mafia in two consecutive rounds.
I designate A/1, B/2, and C/3 as mafia roles. Double mafia duty in this graph are a combination of the letters A-C with a number 1-3.
This is the probability chart of the roles a player may have in two consecutive rounds. A-C & 1-3 = mafia. D-K & 4-11 = non-mafia.
After this, I have a maximum 33-in-121 chance of being mafia. This can be narrowed down further: A: 1 / 2 / 3 / 4 / 5 / 6 / 7 / 8 / 9 / 10 / 11 B: 1 / 2 / 3 / 4 / 5 / 6 / 7 / 8 / 9 / 10 / 11 C: 1 / 2 / 3 / 4 / 5 / 6 / 7 / 8 / 9 / 10 / 11 D: 1 / 2 / 3 / 4 / 5 / 6 / 7 / 8 / 9 / 10 / 11 E: 1 / 2 / 3 / 4 / 5 / 6 / 7 / 8 / 9 / 10 / 11 F: 1 / 2 / 3 / 4 / 5 / 6 / 7 / 8 / 9 / 10 / 11 G: 1 / 2 / 3 / 4 / 5 / 6 / 7 / 8 / 9 / 10 / 11 H: 1 / 2 / 3 / 4 / 5 / 6 / 7 / 8 / 9 / 10 / 11 I: 1 / 2 / 3 / 4 / 5 / 6 / 7 / 8 / 9 / 10 / 11 J: 1 / 2 / 3 / 4 / 5 / 6 / 7 / 8 / 9 / 10 / 11 K: 1 / 2 / 3 / 4 / 5 / 6 / 7 / 8 / 9 / 10 / 11 The numbers in bold represent my chances of being mafia twice in a row, out of the initial 121 possibilities. I calculate the odds of my - or anyone, for that matter - being mafia twice in a row as 9-in-121. Percentagewise, the likelihood that I am mafia for a two consecutive rounds is 7.45%. (Personally, I know the likelihood of my being mafia is zero because I am a citizen!)
Now, as I have said, half of the non-kdogg players in this game were in the previous game - almostcertain, cupcake, Meg, purplefuzzystuff, and sadielady. Let's look at the chances of a first-round non-mafia player being mafia in the second round:
There is a 24-in-121 chance that a first-round non-mafia player will be a mafia in the second round. Percentagewise, we're looking at 19.83%. The people who were not mafia last round are 2.66 times as likely as I am to be mafia - and keep in mind there's five of them.
Assume this game goes four rounds. Since half the decisions are made by the mafia, each round is 1/4 of the total choices the collective gets to make. Do you really want to squander 25% of your influence on a decision with a 7.45% chance of being the case?
The chance of being mafia once is 27.27%. The chance of a particular player being mafia twice is 7.45%. Any one of you is 3.66 times more likely to be mafia this round than I am to be mafia twice in a row.
In a nutshell: - Odds of a player being mafia in a single round = 3 in 11 / 27.27% - Odds that one of the five players (besides myself) from the previous round of being mafia this round = 24-in-121 / 19.83% - Odds that I am mafia this round after being mafia last round = 9-in-121 / 7.45% To the mafia, if these people can somehow be swayed by rational argument and I survive this round: My odds of being inspector the round after playing the mafia role = 3-in-121 / 2.48%
By my analysis, each and every one of you has a greater numerical likelihood of being mafia than I do. Those players that weren't in game 8 seem to have a greater likelihood of being mafia (27.27%) than those who did play in game 8 (19.83%). Since I was mafia last game, I have the least chance of being mafia now (7.45%) as well as a lower chance than a game 8 non-participant. If you think about it, I'm the last person you should be voting for. But as I said, you're not thinking about it - and you're ganging up on me because I'm thinking about it.
Whether you decide to vote for me or not, I just did you a favor. I set up some tables and did some number-crunching (there I go being "thinky" about things again) that have a more rational, impartial foundation to them. It is easier to disagree with me as a person/player than it is to disagree with numbers.
I managed to work all this out myself setting up charts with pencil & single sheet of notebook paper and doing the numbers with a calculator. Use my numbers if you like, though I'll admit I didn't adhere to as strict methods as a statistician would. But if you don't trust my figures I encourage you to calculate your own. You'll probably arrive at some similar conclusions and realize that I'm being honest here.
Post by handgunhipster on Apr 13, 2008 8:23:10 GMT -5
And it seems the mafia has spoken..
Almostcertain polished off the last of a six pack and started a route around the farm. Stumbling along, almostcertain realized there was something missing. Corn. After about twenty minutes and a dozen campsites later, almostcertain picked up a sweet ear of purple corn. almostcertain didn't have any means of consuming this beautiful catch, so almostcertain went to shakedown to shop. After the realization of no glass pieces allowed on the strip, almostcertain had to dig deeper. Makin' small talk and lookin' for independent vendors, she ran into a group of roogoers that told her to look 'through' the booths. almostcertain tried askin' a few vendors what this meant,but to no avail. Nearing the end of shakedown, almostcertain stopped at the last tent and asked her question once again, the vendor suggested, 'if you need any tools we gottem. look behind the eye.' almostcertain looked up to see a beautiful tie-dye tapestry w/ a huge eye in the center. almostcertain slowly moved the cloth out of the way and walked into a small tent of beautiful glass pieces.
But almostcertain eyes filled w/ fear as the curtain closed behind her. Still no traces of the body has been found.
Left to play: purplefuzzystuff samus cajun sadielady cupcake inertiaticc meg bama areyoukind
*i like coconuts, you can break them open they smell like ladies lyin in the sun** *Hell I don't even know where I am** *for now I must sit here and ponder the yonder: The herbivores did well cause their food didn't never run** *We listen, if it feels good We shake** *You made a big impression for a girl of your size, Now I can't get by without you and your big brown eyes.**
Post by purplefuzzystuff on Apr 14, 2008 11:30:35 GMT -5
lol you guys aren't making it any easier to pin somone down haha....everyone is just too nice I feel like I can't in good conscious vote for someone without something more to go on....hmmmm ...someone quick do something suspicious
i voted areyoukind, because he, cajun and kdogg were the only ones with votes during the last final tally. Kdogg obviously voted for cajun and right now i dont think cajun is mafia (cause i dont believe kdoggs wierd pm conspiracy thing)... and kdogg is out so... that's my logic.
I hate to do this but I have to vote for Meg. She was one of the last ones to vote for kdogg. If we assume she and he were both mafia then she may have done so to draw us off the scent, since his demise was imminent.